Core Insights - The economic growth rate in the second half of 2025 is expected to decline compared to the first half, with a focus on structural adjustments in policy, which is a consensus in the market. Despite this, A-shares maintain strength due to stable capital market expectations, the establishment of a "buffer" against macro disturbances, and the connection between short-term economic highlights and mid-term supply-demand improvements [2][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Resilience - The stable capital market policy has created a "buffer" for A-shares against macro disturbances, leading to a widely accepted expectation that the downside risks are controllable [3][6]. - The anti-involution policy has established a connection between short-term economic highlights and mid-term supply-demand improvements, facilitating a smoother transition in the "long-term view, short-term action" market trend [2][7]. - The verification of technological prosperity and the results of US-China trade negotiations have reinforced the shift from value to growth in the short term [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Future Projections - By Q4 2025, market conditions are expected to become more favorable for upward breakthroughs, with fundamental expectations shifting towards 2026, potentially accelerating the reflection of supply-demand improvements [8][10]. - The net profit growth rate for A-shares is anticipated to rebound in 2026, with a low base in Q4 2025 leading to favorable conditions for early reversal expectations [8][10]. - The peak of resident deposit repricing in 2025 presents a critical window for asset reallocation, which may lead to natural increments in certain asset classes that have limited dependence on stock market performance [10][11]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights and Investment Recommendations - The anti-involution investment strategy is expected to favor undervalued cyclical stocks in the short term, while mid-term focus should be on midstream manufacturing that resonates with supply clearing and anti-involution policies [10][11]. - The verification of economic prosperity in Q2 2025 and the results of US-China negotiations support recommendations for A-share computing power industry and leading internet stocks in Hong Kong [10][11]. - Continued strategic optimism for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in internet leaders, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend stocks [10][11].
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/07/14-25/07/19)：经济预期谨慎，A股缘何延续强势
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-19 11:38