Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June, with large - bank lending first decreasing and then increasing, and non - bank lending willingness increasing. The second half of the week saw relatively stable certificate of deposit (CD) prices. Considering the 200 billion yuan MLF withdrawal on July 25, the medium - to - long - term liquidity supply in the second half of the month may rely more on MLF operations [1][20]. - Next week, the money market will still face certain pressure due to factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month. However, the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is the key to the movement of funding prices. Although there are still many disturbances next week, the end of the "tax period" and the possible acceleration of fiscal expenditures at the end of the month may ease the pressure on inter - bank liquidity compared to this week. Funding prices may show a slow downward trend, but the decline may be limited due to the approaching end - of - month point [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overnight Funding: Has It Reached the Peak? - This week, the money market faced multiple disturbances. In the first half of the week, the money market tightened marginally, and in the second half, there were signs of easing. The overnight funding rate reached a relatively high level since June. From July 14 - 18, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 increased by 14.62BP and 13.37BP respectively compared to the previous week, and the weekly averages of DR007 and R007 increased by 5.82BP and 3.25BP respectively [11]. - In the first half of the week, factors such as tax payments, special treasury bond issuance, MLF withdrawal, and large - scale CD maturities led to a marginal tightening of the money market. The central bank continuously increased liquidity injections. On July 15, it conducted a 1.4 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation to inject medium - to - long - term liquidity. Both funding and CD issuance prices increased to varying degrees [11]. - From July 17 - 18, as tax payments neared completion and the central bank continued to increase liquidity injections, there were signs of easing in the money market, but the process of easing may have fallen short of market expectations. Large - bank lending increased moderately, and the weighted CD issuance price fluctuated downward, indicating some relief of money - market pressure. However, funding prices remained at relatively high levels since June, with overnight funding above 1.45% [12]. - Next week, multiple factors such as MLF withdrawal, large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, over 1 trillion yuan of CD maturities, and approaching the end of the month will put pressure on the money market, but the overall situation is controllable. The central bank's response to these disturbances is crucial for the movement of funding prices [23]. 2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase issuance, 42.57 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 140 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase issuance, and 10 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal [27]. - From July 21 - 25, the open market will have 204.68 billion yuan of maturities, including 172.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities, 20 billion yuan of MLF withdrawal, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [3][27]. 3. Government Bonds: Nearly 700 Billion Yuan to Be Issued Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, with 243.3 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 251.2 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 185.2 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 87.8 billion yuan of local government bond maturities [38]. - Next week, government bonds are planned to be issued worth 679.1 billion yuan, including 375 billion yuan of treasury bond issuance, 304.1 billion yuan of local government bond issuance, 395.3 billion yuan of treasury bond maturities, and 114.6 billion yuan of local government bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2.03 billion yuan, and the net payment of local government bonds is 26.02 billion yuan [4][38]. 4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be approximately 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31 percentage points (the forecast for the end of June was 1.28%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points (1.49% in the same period last year) [44]. - From July 14 - 18, the open market had a net injection of 260.11 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 42.88 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was 5.49 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was - 3.04 billion yuan, and tax payments were 169.46 billion yuan [45]. 5. Money Market: Large - Bank Lending First Decreases and Then Increases - Overnight funding rates increased significantly. As of July 18, compared to July 11, DR001 increased by 11.39BP to 1.46%, DR007 increased by 3.49BP to 1.51%, R001 increased by 8.43BP to 1.49%, and R007 decreased by 0.14BP to 1.51% [5][47]. - DR001 exceeded 1.4%. As of July 18, compared to July 11, "DR001 - OMO" increased to 5.66BP, "DR007 - OMO" increased to 10.67BP, "R001 - OMO" increased to 8.81BP, "R007 - OMO" decreased to 10.72BP, "R001 - DR001" decreased to 3.15BP, and "R007 - DR007" decreased to 0.05BP [47]. - SHIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 15.1BP and 4.74BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.32% and 1.47% [52]. - CNH HIBOR rates: The weekly averages of overnight and 7 - day rates changed by 8.43BP and 2.47BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.51% and 1.61% [52]. - Interest rate swap closing rates: The weekly averages of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y rates changed by 0.07BP and 3.11BP respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.53% and 1.53% [55]. - Bill rates: The weekly averages of six - month national - share transfer discount rates and six - month city - commercial transfer discount rates changed by - 0.1 percentage points to 0.84% and 0.95% respectively [55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.2446 trillion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of R001 was 6.4144 trillion yuan, with an average share of 88.5%; the average daily trading volume of R007 was 746.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 10.3% [57]. - The average daily trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange new - style pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1314 trillion yuan, a decrease of 230 million yuan compared to July 7 - 11. Among them, the average daily trading volume of GC001 was 1.8606 trillion yuan, with an average share of 87.3%; the average daily trading volume of GC007 was 199.1 billion yuan, with an average share of 9.3% [57]. - From July 14 - 18, the average net lending of the banking system was 3 trillion yuan, a change of - 83.4 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the average net lending of state - owned large banks was 3.62 trillion yuan, a change of - 86.84 billion yuan compared to last week, with an overnight share of 97%, a change of - 0.26 percentage points compared to last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.61 trillion yuan, a change of 3.44 billion yuan compared to last week [62]. 6. Certificates of Deposit 6.1 Primary Market: Maturity Volume to Increase Next Week - From July 14 - 18, the total issuance of CDs was 945 billion yuan, with a net financing of 18.36 billion yuan. Compared to last week's total issuance of 425.9 billion yuan and net financing of - 9.54 billion yuan, the issuance scale and net financing increased [70]. - By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest CD issuance scale and net financing. State - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 344.7 billion yuan, 215.3 billion yuan, 305 billion yuan, and 74.2 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 64.8 billion yuan, 49.5 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan respectively [70]. - By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month CDs had the highest net financing. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs were 102.5 billion yuan, 118.7 billion yuan, 186.7 billion yuan, 62.8 billion yuan, and 474.3 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 81.1 billion yuan, - 80.5 billion yuan, 81.3 billion yuan, 47.6 billion yuan, and 54.1 billion yuan respectively [70]. - Next week (July 21 - 27), the maturity volume of CDs will be 1.0699 trillion yuan, an increase of 308.5 billion yuan compared to this week (July 14 - 20). The maturity volume is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the maturities are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month terms [80][81]. 6.2 Secondary Market: Yields Fluctuate Narrowly - This week, CD secondary market yields fluctuated narrowly and decreased slightly compared to last week. The yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year AAA - rated CDs decreased by 0BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, - 2BP, and - 1BP respectively to 1.51%, 1.54%, 1.58%, 1.61%, and 1.62% [94]. - The yields of most CD grades decreased. The yields of 1 - year AAA, AAA -, AA +, AA, and AA - rated CDs changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, 0BP, 1BP, and 0BP respectively to 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.65%, 1.7%, and 1.86% [94].
流动性跟踪：隔夜资金见顶了吗？
Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-19 11:28