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转债周度跟踪:继YTM后,转债百元估值同样强势破位-20250719
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-19 12:53

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the week, the convertible bond market experienced a significant pullback, but sentiment quickly recovered. The convertible bond index reached a new high, and the YTM hit a new low. Small - cap sectors such as technology and innovative drugs led the gains, while bank and photovoltaic convertible bonds were volatile, with bank convertible bonds that had performed well retreating. After a phased adjustment, there may be repair opportunities for bank convertible bonds. The convertible bond market is generally expensive, and after the YTM, the 100 - yuan valuation also broke through strongly this week. There may be short - term upward momentum, but potential adjustment risks need to be guarded against [1][4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, both equities and convertible bonds continued to rise slightly. Convertible bonds had a strong ability to follow the rise of underlying stocks, and the 100 - yuan valuation increased. The market - wide convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 31%, up 0.33% from the previous week, and the latest quantile was at the 86.10% percentile since 2017. There was a slight differentiation in the valuations of high - and low - rated convertible bonds, with low - rated ones being slightly stronger [3][5]. - This week, convertible bonds continued to rise slightly following the underlying stocks. The yield to maturity was approaching a historical low, at - 4.39%. As of the latest data, the conversion premium rate index, pure bond premium rate index, and yield to maturity were 43.25%, 34.04%, and - 4.39% respectively, with changes of - 0.73%, + 1.66%, and - 0.39% from the previous week. Their current quantile levels were at the 63.50, 55.10, and 0.80 percentiles since 2017 [3][10]. 3.2 Clause Tracking 3.2.1 Redemption - This week, Guangda, Beilu, Feilu, Yong'an, Liande convertible bonds, etc. issued early redemption announcements. Currently, there are 21 convertible bonds that have issued early redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of these bonds is 5.3 billion yuan. There are 43 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 9 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. Three convertible bonds issued non - redemption announcements this week [3][15][17]. 3.2.2 Downgrade - This week, Lingkang convertible bond proposed a downgrade, and Shanshi convertible bond announced a downgrade, approaching the maximum downgrade. As of the latest, 152 convertible bonds are in the non - downgrade period, 25 cannot be downgraded due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downgrade trigger price without an announcement, 36 are accumulating downgrade days, and 2 have issued board - proposed downgrade plans but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [3][21]. 3.2.3 Put - back - This week, Longda convertible bond issued a put - back announcement. As of the latest, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - back announcements, and 7 are accumulating put - back trigger days, including 5 in the non - downgrade period and 2 accumulating downgrade days [3][24]. 3.3 Primary Issuance - There were no announcements of convertible bond issuances this week. Next week, Libo convertible bond is scheduled to be listed on July 22, 2025. As of the latest, there are 5 convertible bonds in the approved - registration progress, with a total issuance scale of 5.9 billion yuan, and 2 in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a total issuance scale of 1.5 billion yuan [3][26].