高盛：全球半导体晶圆和基板展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the silicon wafer and silicon carbide sectors, driven by strong demand from electric vehicles and artificial intelligence applications [1][2]. Core Insights - The price of silicon wafers in China has been declining, with a forecast for stabilization by 2027 due to capacity expansion [1]. - The market for silicon carbide is significantly influenced by the electric vehicle sector, with penetration rates expected to reach 28% in 2025 and 40% in 2026 [1][7]. - The Chinese silicon wafer market is dominated by five companies, holding a 57% global market share, with significant improvements in technology quality [1][5]. - Geopolitical factors are impacting the semiconductor industry, necessitating careful consideration of tariffs and policies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Silicon Wafer Market - In 2024, the price of silicon wafers in China decreased by 17%, with further declines of 8% in 2025 and an expected 5% in 2026 [4]. - The market is expected to stabilize in 2027 as production capacity continues to expand [4]. Silicon Carbide Market - The price of silicon carbide fell by 16% in 2024 and is projected to decrease by 17% in 2025, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle market [5][6]. - Local manufacturers are significantly increasing their output, contributing to the optimistic market outlook for silicon carbide substrate manufacturers [8]. Key Companies to Watch - Notable companies include Nora (silicon carbide and nitride equipment supplier), Xingyi and Sankexing (leaders in AI server orders), and SICC (local silicon carbide substrate leader) [2][15]. - Infineon is highlighted for its strong performance in silicon carbide strategy, with capabilities in IGBT and silicon wafer production, as well as involvement in AI power chips [1][16]. Geopolitical Considerations - The semiconductor industry faces pressures from geopolitical factors, including tariffs and trade policies, which could affect pricing and market dynamics [1][14]. - Investors are advised to weigh these geopolitical influences carefully when considering investments in the sector [14].