事件点评：央行取消质押券冻结，或并非即将国债买卖

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's move to cancel the freeze on pledged bonds is mainly to enhance market liquidity, and domestic bond repurchase may shift from pledge - style to buy - sell - back style similar to the central bank's. The change from frozen pledged bonds to transferable and tradable ones can significantly boost bond liquidity, especially considering that the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in China in 2025 is 5 - 6 trillion yuan [6]. - Canceling the freeze on pledged bonds can facilitate the central bank's treasury bond trading operations and promote the high - level opening - up of the bond market [7]. - The pattern of the current bond yield increase may shift from the previous "central bank tightens funds → bond yield increases" to "stock market rises → bond yield increases". If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On July 18, 2025, the People's Bank of China issued a notice on soliciting public opinions on the "Decision of the People's Bank of China on Amending Some Regulations (Draft for Comment)", which includes the provision of "canceling the regulation on freezing the pledged bonds for bond repurchase" [4]. - On July 8, 2025, Jiang Huifen, Deputy Director of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025 that it supports the Hong Kong CMU to cancel the freeze on repurchase pledged bonds and further revitalize the pledged bonds, referring to the international common practice of bond repurchase [5]. International Practice of Bond Repurchase - International bond repurchase is centered around buy - sell - back. Through legal mechanisms and market tools, non - frozen management of pledged bonds is achieved, with the core features of ownership transfer and maximum liquidity [5]. Purposes of Canceling Pledged Bond Freeze - Enhancing liquidity: After the central bank's modification, the shift from pledge - style repurchase to buy - sell - back means that pledged bonds change from a frozen state to a temporarily transferable and tradable state, which can greatly enhance bond liquidity [6]. - Facilitating treasury bond trading: Canceling the freeze on pledged bonds can increase the number of available bonds in the market and expand the scope of the central bank's bond - buying and selling operations [7]. - Promoting opening - up: It is in line with international practices, which helps promote the high - level opening - up of the bond market [7]. Misunderstandings of Canceling Pledged Bond Freeze - Misunderstanding 1: It is a wrong view that the reverse repurchase party can re - pledge or replace the pledged bonds. According to relevant regulations, during the repurchase period, both parties cannot use the pledged bonds. Allowing re - pledging may turn bond repurchase into credit repurchase and increase financial risks. Canceling the freeze actually increases the rights of the reverse repurchase party [8]. - Misunderstanding 2: There is no causal relationship between canceling the freeze on pledged bonds and the central bank's imminent treasury bond trading. Since large banks have been continuously buying bonds since May 12, 2025, the central bank's restart of bond - buying is not restricted by the issue of pledged bonds. Canceling the freeze is mainly to enhance the liquidity of existing bonds in the long - and medium - term [9]. Stock - Bond Switch under Economic Expectation Revision - The current pattern of bond yield increase may shift, and if the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out. The rhythm may be similar to that in 2009 and 2020, with the stock market rising first, followed by a lagging increase in bond yields and finally an increase in the capital interest rate [10].