反内卷政策加速落地，钢铁板块价值重估拐点或已至

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector is experiencing a value reassessment due to the implementation of anti-involution policies, suggesting a turning point has been reached [2][3] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing [3][5] - The report highlights that the profitability of ordinary steel is currently favorable, and under the backdrop of anti-involution, profit margins may continue to expand, leading to potential performance improvements for steel companies [3][5] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 0.45%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.09% [10] - Among the sub-sectors, long products increased by 2.53%, while special steel decreased by 0.02% [10][13] Key Data Supply - As of July 18, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.63 thousand tons [26] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.9%, up by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The total output of five major steel products was 7.562 million tons, a decrease of 0.63% week-on-week [26] Demand - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.701 million tons, down by 0.34% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94 thousand tons, a decrease of 5.59% week-on-week [37] Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.221 million tons, up by 0.89% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.156 million tons, down by 2.35% week-on-week [45] Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,462.3 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.99% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar steel was 171 CNY/ton, down by 12.76% week-on-week [60] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,228 CNY/ton, an increase of 55 CNY/ton week-on-week [60] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on companies with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel enterprises [3][5]