红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告：中泰期货红枣市场表现与基本面周度报告-20250720

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market presents both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential production cuts in some surveyed areas, high - temperature warnings during the physiological fruit - dropping period, and possible poor quality of new - season jujubes. Negative factors are high inventory, a consumption slump in July, and a likely normal but relatively small - yield year according to surveys [4]. - In mid - to late July, Xinjiang jujubes enter the physiological fruit - dropping period. There is no concentrated fruit - dropping yet, and recent temperatures in the producing areas are lower than forecast with more rainfall, which is suitable for fruit setting. In the sales areas, the arrival volume is still low, and terminal consumption is average during the traditional off - season. The short - term spot price of jujubes is expected to remain stable. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures price may fluctuate within a bottom range. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season jujubes [4]. - The trading strategy recommendations are to short on rallies for single - side trading, go long on the 09 contract and short on the 01 contract for inter - month trading, and there are no recommendations for volatility and options trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price (Main Producing Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction prices in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar are 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6.0 yuan/kg respectively [6]. Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 20 trucks of jujubes arrived this week, with the arrival volume increasing compared to last week. The price showed a small and stable fluctuation, with high - quality goods having a stronger price. The actual demand at the terminal has not been prominent during the traditional consumption off - season, and the transaction is average. The grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 10.50 - 11.50 yuan/kg, special grade is 9.30 - 10.50 yuan/kg, first - grade is 8.50 - 9.00 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.50 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.10 - 6.30 yuan/kg [10]. Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special - grade and first - grade jujubes is 1.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg compared to last week. The price difference between first - grade and second - grade jujubes is 1.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to last week [13]. Sample Point Weekly Inventory - As of July 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 74.98% [16]. Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Producing Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing areas is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the first - grade finished product price in the Hebei sales area is 8.50 - 8.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 340 - 350 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is 1.86 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week [19]. Futures - Spot Basis (Special - Grade, First - Grade) - The jujube futures price is weakening, while the spot price is stable, causing the futures - spot basis to strengthen slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 450 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22]. Contract Spread - The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts has narrowed, with a discount of 220 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 contracts have a premium of 1240 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 contracts are fluctuating, with a discount of 1020 yuan/ton. There is a potential positive - spread arbitrage opportunity for the 9 - 1 contracts [25]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of July 11, the number of registered jujube warehouse receipts is 8971, and the number of valid forecasts is 1448, totaling 10419, equivalent to 52095 tons of spot [30].