固收周报20250720：关于转债市场下半年的三点担忧-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. There are concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff policies on prices and the support of stablecoins on the short - end of US Treasuries. The global "re - globalization" faces regional supply - demand imbalances, making it difficult for central banks to act in unison, and the view of relying on external "monetary easing" may underestimate this regional feature [1][36]. - There are concerns in the domestic convertible bond market, including potential net supply contraction, the impact of profit - taking by insurance funds and wealth management products on high valuations, and the possibility of equities "occupying" convertible bond positions. However, the convertible bond market in the second half of 2025 still has opportunities, and it is still in the early stage compared to 2014 - 2015, with less extreme supply - demand mismatch [1][37][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Market Review 3.1.1. Equity Market - From July 14th to July 18th, the equity market rose overall. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04% to 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.17% to 2277.15 points, and the CSI 300 rose 1.09% to 4058.55 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 498.76 billion yuan to 15260.45 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 3.38%. Among 31 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries closed up, with 7 industries rising more than 2%. Communication, pharmaceutical biology, automobile, machinery equipment, and national defense and military industry led the gains [6][9][12]. 3.1.2. Convertible Bond Market - From July 14th to July 18th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.67% to 453.86 points. Among 29 Shenwan primary industries, 22 industries closed up, with 5 industries rising more than 2%. Household appliances, automobile, media, electronics, and computer led the gains. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 729.76 billion yuan, a significant increase of 16.97 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of + 2.38%. About 72.12% of individual bonds rose, with 32.49% rising in the 0 - 1% range and 19.71% rising more than 2% [6][14]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to decline, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 44.08%, a decrease of 0.24 pct compared to last week. Different price and parity intervals showed different trends in the conversion premium rate. In terms of industries, 9 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, and 20 industries saw an increase in conversion parity [14][19][29]. 3.1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From July 14th to July 18th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The convertible bond market's trading volume increased by 2.38% week - on - week, while the underlying stock market's trading volume decreased by 0.63% week - on - week. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better [32]. 3.2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - There are opportunities in the convertible bond market in the second half of 2025. Even compared to 2014 - 2015, it is still in the early stage, and the supply - demand mismatch is less extreme. Good "metabolism" will stimulate the continuous vitality of the convertible bond market in the medium term [1][39]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion premium rate repair next week are: Likezhuanzhai, Guanghezhuanzhai, Youzuzhuanzhai, Yushuizhuanzhai, Lianchengzhuanzhai, Pufazhuanzhai, Liqunzhuanzhai, Ying19zhuanzhai, Fenghuozhuanzhai, and Shuangliangzhuanzhai [1][39].