有色金属行业周报：“反内卷”政策驱动延续，看好金属价格上行-20250720

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, and 中国宏桥 [7][8]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in metal prices, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and supporting economic resilience. It highlights the long-term bullish outlook for gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about global monetary credit and public debt [1][38]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and inventory reductions, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to ongoing inventory adjustments and macroeconomic sentiment [2][3]. - In the energy metals segment, lithium prices have surged due to supply-side disruptions, and the report anticipates continued strong performance in this area [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes a sustained positive outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic resilience. Recent U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, contributing to this outlook [1][38]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and a reduction in domestic inventories. As of the latest data, copper inventories have decreased to 143,300 tons, down 23,180 tons year-on-year [2]. - Aluminum: The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile, with ongoing adjustments in inventory levels and production capacity [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium: The report notes a significant increase in lithium prices, with carbonate prices rising by 8.5% to 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions have been a key driver of this price increase [3]. - Silicon Metal: The report highlights a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics for silicon metal, with increased demand from downstream industries [3]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, and 紫金矿业 for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].