宏观经济宏观周报：频指标逆季节性回升，消费维持较优表现-20250720

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic momentum[1] - The standardized Index B rose by 0.14, outperforming historical averages, suggesting a recovery in domestic economic growth[1] - Consumption sector performance improved, while investment sector showed a decline, and real estate sector remained stable[1] Price Tracking - Food prices increased by approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.5%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by around 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year CPI remaining flat at 0.1%[2] - PPI is projected to remain around zero month-on-month, with a year-on-year PPI expected to recover to -3.4%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, indicating potential downward pressure on the index and upward pressure on the ten-year government bond yield[1][17] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of July 25, 2025, is 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,151.19[18]