量化择时周报：如何在上行趋势中应对颠簸？-20250720

• The report identifies the market's uptrend by analyzing the distance between the 120-day and 20-day moving averages of the WIND All A index, which has expanded from 3.04% to 4.04%, indicating a continued uptrend[2][10][17] - The core observation variable for the market's uptrend is the "profitability effect," which is currently positive at 3.76%, suggesting that incremental funds are likely to continue entering the market[2][4][11] - The industry allocation model recommends sectors such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption, with additional opportunities in the photovoltaic sector due to anti-involution benefits[3][4][11] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and AI applications[3][4][11] - The valuation indicators show that the WIND All A index's overall PE is at the 70th percentile, indicating a moderate level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][11] - Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, the report suggests an 80% position for absolute return products with the WIND All A index as the main stock allocation[3][11] Model Backtesting Results - The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the WIND All A index is 4.04%, indicating a continued uptrend[2][10][17] - The profitability effect value is 3.76%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its uptrend despite short-term fluctuations[2][4][11]