豆粕：美豆基本面好转，豆粕期价重心上移，豆一：基本面变化不大，关注技术面波动

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Next week (July 21 - July 25), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to move upward. For soybean meal, the fundamentals of US soybeans are improving due to the hope of Chinese purchases and the trade agreement between the US and Indonesia. The current weather forecast indicates that from late July to early August, the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will decrease and the temperature will be high, which may also support the price. For domestic soybeans, the spot prices are stable, and the fundamentals such as the good growth of new soybeans have not changed much. The futures market should focus on technical aspects and the sentiment of the soybean market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - US Soybean Price Movement: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the US soybean futures price first declined and then rose. The decline was due to good weather and a high excellent - good rate in the producing areas, while the increase was because of the market's expectation of Chinese purchases, the US - Indonesia trade agreement, concerns about high - temperature weather, and the boost from the rising price of US soybean oil. There was also a large - scale export sales order of 120,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination for 2025/26 delivery on July 16. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.73%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.69% [1]. - US Soybean Sales and Shipment: According to the USDA export sales report, in the week of July 10, for the 2024/25 US soybean export shipment, it was about 280,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 30%; the cumulative export shipment was about 46.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 270,000 tons (about 500,000 tons in the previous week); the next - market - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 530,000 tons (about 250,000 tons in the previous week), with a total of about 800,000 tons (about 750,000 tons in the previous week), which was in line with expectations (350,000 - 1 million tons). The current - crop - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were 0 (0 in the previous week), and the next - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were also 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - US Soybean Excellent - Good Rate: According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of July 14, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 66% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 67% [2]. - Brazilian Soybean: As of the week of July 18, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average margin of the futures crushing profit increased week - on - week [2]. - US Soybean Producing Area Weather Forecast: According to the July 19 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 20 - August 3), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher (precipitation will decrease starting from July 21) and the temperature will be high, with a slightly positive impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Futures Price: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean meal futures price mainly rose. The strong sentiment in the domestic market and the rebound of the US soybean price at a low level drove the domestic soybean meal futures price to break through and rise. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 2.69% [2]. - Spot Market: - Trading Volume: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 132,500 tons, compared with about 131,600 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up Volume: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 185,000 tons, compared with about 184,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - Basis: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 18, the average weekly basis of soybean meal was about - 160 yuan/ton, compared with about - 144 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 88 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 11, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 790,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 7% and a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [4]. - Crushing Volume: The weekly soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to decrease slightly next week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.31 million tons (2.3 million tons in the previous week and 1.9 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 65% (65% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (July 19 - July 25), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.24 million tons (1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 63% (56% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Market - Futures Price: Last week (July 14 - July 18), the domestic soybean futures price mainly rose. The spot price was stable, the fundamentals did not change much, and the market trend was affected by the overall sentiment of the soybean and commodity markets. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of July 18, the main a2509 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.15% [2]. - Spot Market: - Soybean Price: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - New Soybean Growth: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast producing area was good, and farmers in many areas had high - yield expectations for new soybeans. The price of old soybeans was stable, but the trading was slow due to weak demand [5]. - Demand in Sales Areas: The demand in the sales areas was weak, mainly for essential needs. Market dealers said that the trading volume of domestic soybeans was slower than that of the same period last year because high temperatures in many areas suppressed the terminal demand for soybean products. There was still essential demand in the market, and some dealers had restocking needs [5].