工业硅：供需去库，关注上游工厂复产节奏，多晶硅：政策市场，谨慎持仓

Report Title - Industrial Silicon: Supply and Demand De-stocking, Monitor the Restart Rhythm of Upstream Factories; Polysilicon: Policy-Driven Market, Hold Positions Cautiously [1][2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the restart rhythm of upstream factories. The market sentiment remains high, and the supply-demand de-stocking logic supports the price. The disk provides a suitable hedging space for upstream factories. The restart progress of upstream factories is crucial [6]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of policy implementation is strong. It is safer to go long at appropriate times. The market is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the relationship with supply and demand is relatively weak [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures disk fluctuated strongly, and the spot price also increased. The futures closed at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM statistics show that the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton (up 300 yuan week-on-week), and the price of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9,050 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan week-on-week) [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures disk rose significantly, and the spot quotation increased. The futures closed at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday. Only a small number of downstream buyers accepted high-price transactions, and further observation is needed [2]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased again. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased, while the production in Xinjiang remained stable. The southwest region carried out hedging operations after the price increase, and some enterprises have the expectation of restarting production. The restart rhythm of northwest silicon factories is crucial. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 million tons this week, and the social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: Short-term demand increased. The production of polysilicon may continue to increase, and the demand for industrial silicon has improved. The production of organosilicon increased this week, and the demand for industrial silicon was maintained. There is also an expectation of restarting production in monomer factories. However, the terminal consumption of organosilicon has not improved significantly. June - July is the off-season for aluminum alloy consumption, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly. Exporters mainly focus on rigid demand and do not hoard goods [3]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short-term weekly production increased marginally. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai are restarting production, which will bring subsequent supply increments. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased this week, and the upstream price increase led to speculative replenishment demand from downstream [4]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers continued to decrease due to the decline in terminal demand and the increase in costs. The price increase of silicon materials has been transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but there is no information on the price increase and transaction of components, indicating that the transmission of upstream price increases is not smooth [4][5]. 3. Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: The disk has resistance to decline before the end of this round of market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the restart progress of upstream factories. It is recommended to go short at high levels, and the expected disk range next week is 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The policy implementation expectation is strong. It is safer to go long at appropriate times. The expected disk range next week is 43,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Recommend going short at high levels for industrial silicon; for polysilicon, it is recommended to go long at appropriate times [6][7]. - Inter - period: Recommend stopping profit for the PS2509/PS2511 inter - period reverse spread strategy [8]. - Hedging: Recommend selling hedging strategies for upstream industrial silicon factories and polysilicon factories [8].