YONGHUI SUPERSTORES(SH:601933) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-07-20 09:55Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Offline retail: The company expects a net profit of -240 million yuan for H1 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of -830 million yuan. The number of store closures in Q2 reached 179, with only about 50 stores left to close. The impact of closures on performance is expected to peak in Q2, with a gradual improvement anticipated in Q3 as the number of closures decreases and the proportion of remodeled stores increases [10][14] - Online retail: Regulatory discussions with Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com suggest a potential turning point in the competitive landscape of food delivery services. The end of the subsidy war is better than market expectations, and if subsidy intensity decreases, it can be inferred that the current user experience (UE) has bottomed out [14][30] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance: In the fourth week of June, the combined GMV of Tmall and JD.com increased by 57.65% year-on-year [16] - Category performance: The top five categories in terms of growth for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of June were watches, toys, shoes and bags, home and decoration, and automotive and bicycles [2] Market Review - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.69%, 2.04%, 1.09%, 2.84%, and 5.53% respectively. The retail trade sector (Shenwan) rose by 0.23%, ranking fourth among nine major consumption sectors [19][23] Investment Recommendations - For offline retail, focus on Yonghui Supermarket, which is undergoing significant transformation towards a selective retail model. This new model has the potential for long-term rapid growth in the post-consumption era. Yonghui's unique competitive advantages include a strong focus on fresh produce, scale advantages in procurement, and financing advantages due to its public listing [28][29] - For online retail, Meituan is expected to maintain its competitive edge in user perception, rider management, and merchant relationships. The company is also expanding its satellite store model, which has shown significant operational efficiency improvements [30][15]