Changjiang Securities·2025-07-20 10:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report indicates that several brokerage firms have disclosed performance increases, with mid-year results expected to continue high growth, enhancing their investment value. Additionally, the insurance sector is anticipated to see an increase in value ratios, driving significant growth in new business value. The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with positive investment returns and profit growth. Current valuations reflect a pessimistic assumption about long-term investments, but considering the medium to long-term interest rate spreads, current valuations remain safe. The report is optimistic about improvements in concentration and liability costs [2][4] - From the perspective of profitability and dividend stability, the report recommends Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance for their stable profit growth and high dividend yields. Furthermore, it recommends Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Fortune, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.3%, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 3.0%, also underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.2%, ranking 22nd out of 31 sectors. Overall, the non-bank sector has shown weak performance this week [5] Market Performance - Market activity has seen a rebound, with an average daily trading volume of 15,462.47 billion yuan, up 3.35% week-on-week. The average turnover rate is 1.83%, an increase of 4.07 basis points. The leverage capital scale has also risen, with a margin balance of 1.90 trillion yuan, up 1.64% [5][34] Brokerage Data Tracking - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.09% and the ChiNext index increasing by 3.17%. The average daily trading volume has surpassed the 2024 average, indicating a gradual recovery in brokerage business profitability [33][39] Investment Business - The equity market is showing signs of recovery, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.09% and the ChiNext index up by 3.17%. The report notes that brokerage firms have a significant portion of their investment assets in equities (10%-30%) and bonds (70%-90%), necessitating close monitoring of market changes [39] Credit Business - The margin trading balance has increased to 1.90 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.64% week-on-week rise. The report notes that while the stock pledge business is expected to remain cautious due to past credit risks, income from this business is anticipated to perform better than its scale [42] Investment Banking Business - In June, the equity financing scale rose significantly to 544.19 billion yuan, a 3140.2% increase, while bond financing reached 88.3 trillion yuan, up 21.3%. The report suggests that the stock underwriting scale is expected to increase due to new refinancing regulations [44][46] Asset Management Business - The report indicates a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with June seeing a total issuance of 9.301 billion units, up 116.8% from the previous month. However, the new fund issuance decreased by 22.0% in June compared to the previous month [48]