周观：流动性驱动牛难撼动利率下行趋势，但制约空间（2025年第28期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, bond yields declined slightly, partially offsetting the increase from the previous week due to restrictions on rural commercial banks' bond purchases. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still restricts the downward space of bond yields in the short term. There are two types of stock market bull runs: fundamental - driven and liquidity - driven. The fundamental - driven bull run causes a shift in risk preference between stocks and bonds, while the liquidity - driven bull run benefits both asset classes. Given the current economic data, the fundamental - driven bull run logic requires third - quarter data for verification and will not lead to an obvious reversal of the "stock - bond seesaw" effect but will make it difficult for bond yields to break through key points. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will range from 1.65% - 1.7%, presenting allocation opportunities [2][16] - Overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances during the "re - globalization" process, and the view of relying on external monetary easing may underestimate the regional characteristics of this imbalance [3][17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - Bond Market Downward Space Analysis: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond decreased by 0.2bp from 1.666% to 1.664%. Throughout the week, various economic data and events influenced bond yields. On Monday, better - than - expected economic data led to a slight increase in bond yields, but the central bank's positive attitude towards bond - buying and liquidity injection later caused yields to decline. Tuesday's mixed economic data and a stock market decline drove bond yields down. Wednesday's rise in US CPI data slightly negatively affected the bond market. Thursday saw both the stock and bond markets oscillating. Friday's end of the tax period and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect had mixed impacts on bond yields [1][14][15] - US Economic Data and Bond Yield Outlook: This week, overseas markets continued the previous week's direction, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the use of short - term US Treasuries as stablecoin reserves support the short - end of US Treasuries. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances [3][17] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open Market Operations: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the total net injection in open - market operations was 12,011 billion yuan [36] - Money Market Interest Rates: Compared with the previous week, most money market interest rates remained stable, with only a slight increase in the 14 - day interest rate [38] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - US Economic Data: In June 2025, the US CPI exceeded market expectations, while the PPI was lower than expected. The July Michigan Consumer Index continued to rise, with the confidence index reaching a five - month high. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, while the number of continued claims increased slightly but was lower than expected. Fed Governor Waller hinted at potentially opposing a rate cut [5][20][21] - Domestic Economic Data: Steel prices increased, and the total commercial housing transaction area decreased across the board [61][64] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 60 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 251.183 billion yuan, including 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 161.424 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 27.622 billion yuan in new general bonds. The total repayment amount was 100.685 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 150.499 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [72] - 11 provinces and cities issued local bonds this week, with Fujian, Liaoning, and Yunnan having the top three issuance amounts [77] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 52.04 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 38.5779 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74%. The top three most actively traded provinces were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan, and the top three most actively traded maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [90] - The local bond yields generally declined this week [92] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No specific content provided. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 344 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 281.266 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 236.046 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 45.22 billion yuan, which was 43.124 billion yuan less than last week [96] - Specifically, local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds had a net financing amount of - 12.414 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 57.634 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of - 26.401 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 47.259 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 37.02 billion yuan, corporate bonds had 33.198 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 51.34 billion yuan [99][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - This week, the actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all decreased [110] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 543.018 billion yuan [111] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and LGFV bonds generally declined this week [113][115][116][117] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds all narrowed, while the credit spreads of LGFV bonds generally narrowed [118][123][126] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, while the grade spreads of LGFV bonds generally widened [130][135][138] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by the public utilities, finance, materials, and energy sectors [141][142] 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings or outlooks of several companies, including Qingdao Caito Group Co., Ltd. and Wuhan East Lake High - tech Group Co., Ltd., were upgraded this week [146]