粤开宏观：关税战如何影响中国物价：表现、展望及应对

Group 1: Impact of Tariff War on Prices - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the lowest since August 2023, while CPI remained around 0%[12] - Brent crude oil prices fell from $74.95 per barrel to $62.82 per barrel following the announcement of tariffs, leading to significant declines in PPI for the petroleum industry of -8.6%, -11.1%, and -9.0% from April to June 2025[2] - Exports to the U.S. for textiles, clothing, and furniture saw a drop of over 40% in May 2025, resulting in a significant decrease in related export prices, such as an 8.3% drop in the average price of clothing imported from China[17] Group 2: Future Price Trends and Recommendations - International commodity prices are expected to remain under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production, which may lead to further downward pressure on prices[31] - The negative impact of the tariff war on China's overall exports may gradually become more pronounced, with potential price declines for more products[32] - To counteract the tariff impacts, it is crucial to expand domestic effective demand through policies that stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the real estate sector[42]