黑色金属周报合集-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is experiencing a positive feedback loop, with steel prices expected to continue rising. The iron ore market is supported by macro - factors, leading to a valuation increase. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish as demand is being released. The ferroalloy market has a tight spot demand, and the cost is pushed up by the futures market [3][6][75][133]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Steel Market Outlook - The steel market is driven by positive feedback from expectations. Macro - factors include tariff disturbances overseas and a focus on supply - side expectations and waiting for the 730 Politburo meeting domestically. The off - season steel demand is better than expected, with low inventories, expanding steel mill profits, slow decline in hot metal production, and poor transmission of negative feedback [8]. 3.1.2 Threaded Steel - Price and Basis: Last week, the Shanghai threaded steel spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3147 (+14) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 103 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 44 (- 16) yuan/ton [21]. - Demand: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. In the off - season, demand indicators decline seasonally [22][26]. - Inventory: Steel inventories are at a low level and not accumulating, indicating low pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - Profit: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 324 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 272 (- 25) yuan/ton [38]. 3.1.3 Hot - Rolled Coils - Price and Basis: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3340 (+40) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3310 (+37) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 30 (+3) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 10 (- 3) yuan/ton [43]. - Demand: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production is in the off - season. The convergence of internal and external price differences has led to a decline in steel exports [47][48]. - Inventory: The off - season demand is slightly better than expected, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. Steel mills maintain high production levels [50][53]. - Profit: Both spot and futures profits are shrinking. Last week, the spot profit was 246 (- 13) yuan/ton, and the futures profit was 285 (- 2) yuan/ton [57]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Outlook - The supply of mainstream iron ore shipments continues to decline from a high level, but freight rates are stabilizing and showing signs of a rebound. Iron ore demand is strong, with hot metal production rebounding against the season and high port clearance. The "anti - involution" theme trading sentiment is strong, and the market expects potential "supply - side reform - like" interventions in the steel industry. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and bullish [77]. 3.2.2 Contract Performance - The main 09 contract price is volatile and bullish, closing at 785.0 yuan/ton, with an open interest of 693,000 lots (an increase of 31,000 lots). The average daily trading volume was 384,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 54,000 lots [79]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - Spot prices generally follow the futures market, with high - grade ore prices catching up. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) increased from 845 to 870 yuan/ton [83]. 3.2.4 Supply - Mainstream Mines: Mainstream shipments decreased month - on - month, but freight rates stabilized and rebounded. - Non - mainstream Mines: Overall shipments decreased month - on - month, and the recovery in Peru was limited. - Domestic Mines: The capacity utilization rate in the southwest region increased, and the overall national capacity utilization rate stabilized [88][93][100]. 3.2.5 Demand - Hot metal production increased month - on - month in the off - season, and the port clearance volume remained at a high level compared to previous years. The substitution effect of scrap steel weakened as the price difference between scrap and hot metal decreased significantly [102][105]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventories has not arrived yet [110]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads - High - medium and medium - low grade ore price spreads both increased significantly. The PB lump - powder spread showed a slight narrowing trend. The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads strengthened, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed to the low level of the same period last year, while the 09 contract is close to par [119][124][125]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Market Outlook - The supply of coking coal and coke is gradually recovering but at a limited pace. The demand is increasing as blast furnace overhauls are completed and hot metal production is rising. The inventory will mainly be replenished based on rigid demand. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment after the coke price increase needs to be monitored [133][134][137]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply: The domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly this week, with the sample coal mine raw coal output decreasing by 2.65 tons to 1227.88 tons week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate dropping by 0.18% to 85.43%. The independent coking plant's daily average coke output was 64.2 (+0.1) [136][139]. - Demand: The hot metal production increased, and coke enterprises and intermediate links actively purchased, but the overall arrival of coke at enterprises did not improve significantly [136]. - Inventory: The steel mill's coke inventory is at a medium level, but due to the influence of the futures market, traders' purchases have tightened the supply, and the steel mill's inventory has decreased. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared to last week [134]. - Profit: The profit of coking coal is 326 (+36), and the average profit of coke enterprises is - 65 (- 35) [139].