聚酯数据周报-20250720

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - PX: Unilateral prices are expected to be moderately strong with a bullish spread between the September and January contracts. Suggest rolling long positions in the PX calendar spread, and also pay attention to the strategy of going long on PX and short on EB/EG [3][5]. - PTA: Due to weak downstream demand and cost - related factors, TA prices will fluctuate. The spread between the September and January contracts should be traded within the range of 20 - 70. PTA is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, and the basis may stabilize and rebound. Consider strategies such as going long on PTA and short on PF [7]. - MEG: The September - January spread should reduce positions. Unilateral prices should be traded within the range of 4250 - 4450. The basis and spread suggest exiting the calendar spread long positions in the short - term. The upside for the unilateral price is limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - Valuation and Profit: Unilateral prices are moderately strong, and the 9 - 1 spread rebounds. The gasoline crack spread declines, and the Asian aromatics blending demand weakens. The toluene disproportionation profit is decent, and the PX - MX spread remains high [21][34][44]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic production capacity utilization slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical in late July. Overseas, some plants have restarts and shutdowns. The apparent consumption in May was 355 tons, and the maintenance loss in July decreases. The import volume in May rebounded to 773,000 tons [55][59][64]. - Inventory: The monthly inventory in June decreased to 4.35 million tons [83]. PTA - Valuation and Profit: The calendar spread long positions should take profit. The basis rebounds from the bottom, and the processing fee is at a low level, with weakening profits in the polyester segment [94][104]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate remains stable at 79.7%. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang's new plant. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 270,000 tons, and is expected to rebound in June and July. The inventory has increased [107][115][135]. MEG - Valuation and Profit: Unilateral valuation is in a range - bound market, and the spread weakens with limited downside. The profits in each segment decline month - on - month, and MTO and ethylene - purchased MEG production are in severe losses [141][149]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate decreased month - on - month. The import volume in June was 620,000 tons, and is expected to remain the same in July. The import profit is generally low, the visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has been increasing [156][160][167]. Polyester Segment - Valuation and Profit: No specific information on valuation and profit is provided. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate is 88.5% (- 0.3%). The production of polyester has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of filament yarn has increased significantly, while the inventory of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [171][178][180].