债市短评：当前债市的几个潜在风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" may be Supply - side Reform 2.0, potentially driving a significant rebound in PPI and impacting the bond market [2]. - The stock market is rising steadily, with a notable increase in risk appetite. This may attract funds into the stock market, putting pressure on the bond market [2]. - China's export resilience is prominent. There is a possibility of a further reduction in US tariffs on China, which could promote export growth [2]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project may boost infrastructure investment growth and drive up related stock prices [2]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution". The report recommends long - duration sinking of urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - bonds, and suggests paying attention to investment opportunities in certain capital bonds and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Macroeconomic Policy Impact - In 2015, supply - side reform and shantytown renovation promoted a significant rebound in PPI and nominal GDP growth, causing the bond market to decline. In 2025, "anti - involution" has become the focus of economic policy and may have a similar impact [2]. Stock and Bond Market Relationship - Since the Spring Festival in 2025, the stock market has been rising steadily, ending the negative economic cycle from 2022 - 2024. The wealth effect of the stock market promotes consumption, and the inflow of funds into the stock market may put pressure on the bond market [2]. Export Situation - China's total export value has grown rapidly in the past year. The resilience of exports is not only due to "rush - to - export" but also reflects the global competitiveness of many industries. A reduction in US tariffs on China could further boost exports [2]. Infrastructure Investment - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, may drive the stabilization of infrastructure investment growth and the rise of related stocks [2]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market's trading volume is overly concentrated in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. If the "anti - involution" efforts are strong, it may lead to the collapse of the ultra - long - term bond concentration and a 10 - 20BP adjustment in the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury yield may need a new round of interest rate cuts to reach a new low. In the short term, the bond market will fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" [2].