权益上涨，长端信用利差收窄

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.17% from July 14 to July 18[2][8] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.53% during the same period, indicating a recovery after a short-term adjustment[2][8] - The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51%, reflecting mixed performance in the U.S. market[2][8] Group 2: Credit Spread and Interest Rates - As of July 18, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.67% and the 3-year yield was 1.60%, indicating stability at a potential bottom[3][12] - The credit spread for AAA corporate bonds over government bonds narrowed, with the 3-year credit spread at 11.89 basis points and the 3-month spread at 17.78 basis points[3][12] - The 10-year China-U.S. bond yield spread reached -277.48 basis points, while the 1-year spread was -273.1 basis points, highlighting a significant gap[3][12] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices collectively strengthened, with COMEX gold futures settling at $3,355 per ounce and NYMEX crude oil futures at $66 per barrel as of July 18[4][22] - The short-term outlook for oil prices suggests stabilization below $70, while gold is expected to gradually rise after a short-term adjustment[4][22] Group 4: Currency Stability - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, with the USD/CNY rate at 7.177 and the EUR/CNY rate at 8.351 as of July 18[5][23] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar has contributed to the relative strength of the RMB in global financial markets[5][23] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The positive performance of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and the Nasdaq is linked to easing geopolitical tensions and rising global risk appetite[6][9] - Future bond yield movements are expected to remain at a low level, making significant trading opportunities more challenging[6][9] - Long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term price fluctuations[6][9]