油脂油料周报：美豆油持续走高，连棕油刷新高点-20250720

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the protein meal market, international soybean prices rebounded after a decline this week. Domestic soybean meal followed the upward trend of US soybeans, showing a strong and volatile pattern. In the short - term, domestic soybean meal is expected to continue its strong and volatile performance, with the M2509 contract facing resistance at the previous high of 3089. - In the oil market, international oils rose significantly this week. Domestic oils followed the international trend, with palm oil leading the increase. In the future, international palm oil may continue to rise if Indonesian production is lower than expected, and US soybean oil remains bullish. Domestic oils are likely to have a rotation effect, and there may be a catch - up increase in soybean oil and rapeseed oil [65][131]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Review - This week, CBOT soybeans first declined and then rebounded. USDA report was bearish at the beginning, but later factors such as higher - than - expected June crushing data, increased exports, and rising soybean oil prices drove the rebound. Domestic soybean meal fluctuated upwards, with the main contract breaking through key integer levels [6]. 2. US Market Information - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. From 2024/25 to date, the total US soybean export inspection volume reached 46,411,264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. As of July 13, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected, with a flowering rate of 47% and a pod - setting rate of 15% [10][18]. 3. North American Weather - In the US, some areas in Texas had continuous heavy rain, while the western part was dry. In Canada, the prairie region was affected by drought, which had an impact on crop growth [22][29]. 4. Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - US soybean crushing capacity has increased, but the oversupply of soybean meal restricts full utilization. In June 2025, China imported 12.26 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 10.35%. Brazil was the main supplier. Various institutions adjusted their forecasts for global soybean production, consumption, and trade [31]. 5. Global Trade Pattern Changes - The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, including Indonesia's purchase of US agricultural products, energy products, and aircraft, which may affect the global trade pattern [36]. 6. Domestic Market Indicators - Domestic spot and futures crushing margins improved. As of the end of the week, port soybean inventory was about 6.5215 million tons, and the theoretical crushable days were 19 days. The soybean oil mill opening rate was high, and the soybean meal inventory increased [42][48]. Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Market Review - International oils rose significantly this week. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil reached new highs. Domestic oils followed the international trend, with palm oil leading the increase [65]. 2. International Oil Information - In June, India's palm oil imports reached an 11 - month high. In June 2025, China imported 696,000 tons of edible vegetable oils, a month - on - month increase of 50.65%. From July 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased. US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was lower than expected. Malaysia raised the export tax rate for August palm oil. Indonesia's biodiesel policy had a positive impact on the market [69][70]. 3. Southeast Asian Weather - Thailand and surrounding areas had seasonal monsoon rainfall, and Malaysia and Indonesia also had beneficial rainfall [77]. 4. Domestic Market Indicators - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of three major domestic edible oils increased. The inventory of soybean oil increased, palm oil increased slightly, and rapeseed oil decreased [87]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal index charts of various products such as US soybeans, soybean meal, and domestic oils were provided, but no specific analysis content was given. 2. Next - Week Market Outlook - Technical Level: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, different short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators showed different trends [130]. - Fundamentals - Protein Meal: Internationally, US soybeans may be affected by weather and tariff policies, and are expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1100. Domestically, soybean meal inventory is increasing, and short - term soybean meal is expected to be strong and volatile. - Oils: Internationally, Malaysian palm oil may continue to rise if Indonesian production is lower than expected, and US soybean oil remains bullish. Domestically, oils follow the international trend, and there may be a catch - up increase in soybean oil and rapeseed oil [131].