白糖周报：郑糖维持震荡，上下空间均有限-20250720

Report Overview - Report Title: "Zheng Sugar Maintains Fluctuations with Limited Upside and Downside Space - Guoxin Futures Sugar Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 20, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Zheng sugar market has reduced volatility but a slightly upward - shifted center. In the short term, the upside is limited due to sufficient supply, while the downside has cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate around 5,800 yuan/ton. The international raw sugar market has rebounded from the bottom. Although there are short - term positive factors, the upside is suppressed by supply expectations. The recommended operation is short - term trading [57][58]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zheng sugar had a bullish weekly fluctuation with a 0.28% weekly increase. ICE sugar had a slight rebound with a 1.15% weekly increase [7]. 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not elaborated in the provided content. 3.1.3 National Production and Sales Situation - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - In June, 420,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 390,000 tons compared to the same period last year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4,580 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,822 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared to the same period last year [26]. 3.1.6 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zheng sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 21,857, a decrease of 1,183 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 21,857, and the valid forecast was 0 [34]. 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 206 million tons, a 14.06% year - on - year decrease, and the sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a 14.25% year - on - year decrease [38]. 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 51.02%, compared to 48.69% in the same period last year [40]. 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In June, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.359 million tons, a 5.24% increase compared to the same period last year [45]. 3.1.10 International Main Production Area Weather Conditions - There was almost no rainfall in Brazil's main production areas, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [54]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Zheng sugar's volatility has decreased, and the center has slightly moved up. After the release of import data, the expectation of a large amount of imports arriving at ports has gradually been realized. The processing sugar mainly supplements the market, and the focus is on consumption. In the short term, the sugar price has limited upside and cost - supported downside, and is expected to fluctuate around 5,800 yuan/ton [57]. 3.2.2 International Market - Raw sugar has rebounded from the bottom. Abundant rainfall in Asia is beneficial for sugarcane growth, and the lower - than - expected production in southern Brazil in the second half of June has boosted the international sugar market. However, the upside is suppressed by supply expectations [57].