Guotou Securities·2025-07-20 11:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 923 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.03%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 63.4 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 523.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year and 30.8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by new vehicle launches and improved overseas sales [2] - The company is entering a new growth phase with the launch of new models and a focus on direct-to-consumer channels, which is expected to enhance brand value and sales [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 45.9 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year and 161.9% quarter-on-quarter, while the non-recurring net profit was 21.1 billion yuan, down 30.1% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q2 2025 reached 167,000 yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year but an increase of 7.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Market Outlook - The mainstream market for new vehicles is expected to see an upward sales trend, supported by the successful launch of new models and a comprehensive marketing strategy [4] - The company has significant potential in the off-road vehicle market, with the Hi4Z technology expected to enhance product offerings and profitability [4] - The company has a diverse product range and strong technological capabilities, indicating substantial export potential as new models and powertrains are introduced [4] Valuation and Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 140.3 billion yuan, 174.0 billion yuan, and 209.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.4, 10.8, and 9.0 times [4][10] - The six-month target price is set at 32.79 yuan per share, reflecting a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4]