工业硅周报：短期偏强，关注龙头大厂生产动态-20250720

Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industrial silicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for industrial silicon is bullish. The market sentiment is strong due to factors such as the reduction in production scale of leading large - scale manufacturers, the small - scale production capacity in the southwest region, the upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for key industries, and the low inventory of industrial silicon factories. The price is expected to strengthen further, with a pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Supply and Demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 47,800 tons, a 1.92% increase; the weekly output of polysilicon was 23,400 tons, a 0.21% increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a 1.5% increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan and Sichuan, decreased in Xinjiang, and increased in Inner Mongolia. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang was 123,600 tons, a 0.24% decrease [3]. - Trading Logic: Leading large - scale manufacturers have expanded their production cuts. The restarted production capacity in the southwest consists of small - sized furnaces. It is expected that the industrial silicon output in July will decrease by 20,000 - 30,000 tons compared to June. There is a supply - demand gap before the leading large - scale manufacturers resume production. The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong in the short term, and the price is expected to strengthen further [3]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a bullish approach in the short term. For options, buy protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Market Review: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. Southwest manufacturers carried out large - scale hedging around 9,000 yuan. As of Friday, the main futures contract closed at 8,695 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon increased significantly, generally rising by 300 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. - Downstream Demand: The output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable. It is expected that the output of organic silicon in July will be flat compared to June, and the output of polysilicon will increase [9][13]. - Industrial Silicon Output: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased by 1.5% this week. The number of open furnaces changed in different regions. Overall, the output in July is expected to decrease compared to June before the large - scale manufacturers in the northwest resume production [23]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: The factory inventory and social inventory decreased slightly. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.73%, and the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 0.24%. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in Yunnan increased by 0.37%, and that in Sichuan decreased by 3.7% [24]. - Related Product Prices: The spot price of industrial silicon increased this week. The prices of DMC and its terminal products also strengthened [30][34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Industrial Silicon - Related Product Prices: The spot price of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [30]. - Organic Silicon - Related Product Prices: The prices of DMC and its terminal products strengthened this week [34]. - Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [43]. - Industrial Silicon Raw Material Prices: The spot price of refined coal in Xinjiang stopped falling [45]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the polysilicon industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term outlook for polysilicon is bullish. The price is expected to be strong next week. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Comprehensive Analysis: There are many rumors in the polysilicon market, and the main trading logic is "anti - involution" and selling at no less than cost. The increase in polysilicon price can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of (40,000, 47,000) yuan/ton. The price is expected to be strong next week, and attention should be paid to the situation of manufacturers selling for delivery [51]. - Operation Strategy: For unilateral trading, be bullish in the short term and participate with a light position. For options, buy call options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [52]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - Polysilicon Price: This week, the spot quotes of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable. N - type granular silicon decreased slightly. The market generally agrees on selling at no less than cost, but there are no direct high - price orders, mainly a combination of old and new orders [53][65]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. Silicon wafer enterprises started to quote based on full cost, and the battery price has not been adjusted according to the benchmark cost price determined in the self - discipline meeting. Attention should be paid to the actual transaction situation next week [66][71]. - Component Price: The prices of components in centralized and distributed projects are expected to increase. Many manufacturers plan to raise component quotes due to the increase in the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and batteries [80]. - Component Fundamental Data: In July, the orders of photovoltaic component enterprises did not improve. It is expected that the production schedule of photovoltaic components in July will be reduced to 45GW [81]. - Battery Fundamental Data: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers increased to 15.96GW, and the production schedule of photovoltaic battery enterprises was reduced to 54GW in July [87]. - Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data: This week, the silicon wafer inventory decreased to 16.02GW, the output was 13.04GW, and the production schedule in July is about 52.2GW [91]. - Polysilicon Fundamental Data: This week, the polysilicon output increased slightly, and the factory inventory increased to 276,800 tons. The output in July is variable due to the复产 and postponed复产 of some production capacities [94].