非银金融行业跟踪周报：券商中报确认高增长，保险业绩亦值得期待-20250720

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance, with securities firms expected to report high growth in mid-2025, and the insurance sector also showing promising results [1][4] - The report highlights the significant increase in trading volume and the positive outlook for brokerage firms, driven by an active capital market [4][18] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from long-term investment strategies and regulatory changes that enhance the allocation of insurance funds to equity assets [22][29] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable growth phase, with trust assets continuing to grow despite a decline in profits [31][36] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent five trading days (July 14-18, 2025), all non-bank financial subsectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the securities and insurance sectors both down by 1.00% [9] - Year-to-date, the multi-financial sector has performed the best, with an increase of 11.63%, followed by the insurance sector at 10.07% [10] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased, with the average daily trading amount for July 2025 reaching 17,090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.40% [14] - The mid-2025 earnings forecast for brokerage firms is optimistic, with 27 out of 29 listed brokerages expected to report profit increases, and 12 firms anticipating at least a 100% growth in net profit [18] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities sector is projected at 1.3x for 2025E, indicating potential for growth [21] Insurance Sector - The introduction of long-term assessment guidelines for state-owned insurance companies is expected to enhance the allocation of insurance funds to equity investments [22] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.60-0.93 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered low historically, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [29] - The sector is anticipated to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales of savings-type products [51] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total trust assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [31] - The futures market has seen a significant increase in trading volume and value, with June 2025 figures showing a 28.91% increase in volume and a 17.40% increase in value year-on-year [37] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to strengthen the management of local asset management companies, promoting healthy industry development [48] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the non-bank financial sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial [51] - Key companies recommended include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [51]