进退两难，等风来

Market Overview - The bond market remains unclear, with long-term interest rates showing a V-shaped trend, indicating a state of stagnation where rates neither rise nor fall significantly[1] - From July 14-18, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.66% (-0.2bp), while the 30-year bond yield fell to 1.87% (-0.3bp)[9] Funding Conditions - During the major tax payment week, interbank overnight and 7-day funding rates reached temporary highs of 1.57% and 1.58%, raising concerns about the sustainability of a loose monetary environment[2] - The net payment of government bonds during this period was 428.8 billion yuan, contributing to a significant funding gap[20] Market Sentiment - Recent increases in market risk appetite are reflected in the rising financing balance in the stock market, with new funds continuously entering[3] - The expectation of policy support has strengthened, particularly with recent favorable signals from U.S. officials regarding tariffs on China[3] Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, avoiding aggressive duration increases while closely following market trends[4] - The bond market may develop in two directions: a potential steepening of the yield curve driven by short-term rate declines and a focus on coupon income as funding rates decrease[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]