“反内卷”的宏观背景

Domestic Economic Analysis - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, exceeding expectations of 5.17% and previous value of 5.4%. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries showed growth rates of 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% respectively [1][9][10] - In June, industrial production increased by 6.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.66% and previous value of 5.8%. However, social consumption and investment showed declines [11][14] - Exports in June grew by 5.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous 4.7% and expectations of 3.21%. Imports also increased by 1.1%, reversing a previous decline [43][44] - The social financing scale increased by 4.20 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. New RMB loans turned positive, indicating a recovery in credit conditions [55][56] International Economic Context - The core CPI growth in the US for June was lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to the expected 3.0% [2][66] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to impact global economic conditions, with potential implications for international trade and investment strategies [2][66][67] Industry Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. The performance of undervalued dividends is closely tied to the progress in the AI sector [3][5] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with a potential recovery supported by declining interest rates and policy catalysts. The report warns against overly pessimistic views on consumer recovery [3][5]