“流动性笔记”系列之二：“解雇”鲍威尔？

Group 1: Market Reactions and Implications - Recent rumors of Trump potentially "firing" Powell led to a significant market reaction, resulting in a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies[2] - On July 16-17, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.3% within an hour, while the 10Y Treasury yield rose by 1.0 basis points to 4.4%[5][20] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 98.46, and offshore RMB depreciated to 7.1810 against the dollar[5] Group 2: Trump's Motivations and Legal Considerations - Trump's motivation to potentially dismiss Powell stems from a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal interest payment pressures, with interest payments constituting 16.9% of federal spending as of June 2025[2][30] - Legally, Trump would need to prove "misconduct" to fire Powell, which is complicated by historical precedents protecting the Fed's independence[3][32] Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating in 2019 that nothing short of death would prevent him from doing so[3][40] - If Trump were to succeed in firing Powell, the process would involve appointing a new chair, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Bessenet[3][6]