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白糖市场周度报告:全球需求可能增强,内外糖共振反弹-20250720
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-20 12:20
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar market: As the production of the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season in Brazil progresses, the increasing supply from Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere continue to suppress international sugar prices. However, the low cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil and the signal of increased demand may provide some upward momentum for international sugar prices. Technically, the raw sugar price is oscillating and rebounding, but the rebound space is still limited [4]. - Domestic sugar market: The spot price of the domestic sugar market fluctuates slightly. Although the domestic - international sugar price spread is widening, the high domestic sugar production and sales rate and the appearance of import profits outside the quota are the main factors suppressing the sugar price. The new industrial inventory is in the destocking stage, which supports the domestic sugar price. It is expected that the sugar price will still show an oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display - Price changes: ICE raw sugar main contract rose from 16.56 to 16.79, an increase of 1.39%; ICE white sugar main contract rose from 479.4 to 486.4, an increase of 1.46%; Zheng sugar main contract decreased from 5810 to 5805, a decrease of 0.09%. The processing sugar costs in Brazil and Thailand also increased to varying degrees, while the prices in some domestic regions such as Guangxi Nanning decreased slightly, and Yunnan Kunming increased slightly [2]. - Profit changes: The import processing sugar profits (both outside and within the quota) and the import disk profit all showed a slight decline [2]. - Basis and spread: The basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou is expected to oscillate weakly; the spreads between Zheng sugar 9 - 11 and 9 - 1 are expected to weaken from high levels; the delivery costs in Guangxi and Yunnan are expected to oscillate slightly [3]. 3.2 Market Key Data Overview 3.2.1 International Market Key Data Overview - Brazil: The bi - weekly production increased from 245.00 million tons to 285.00 million tons, an increase of 16.33%; the monthly export volume increased from 225.66 million tons to 336.18 million tons, an increase of 48.98%. The production is gradually increasing, but the low cane - to - sugar ratio may lead to lower - than - expected production [4]. - Thailand and India: The report shows the bi - weekly cumulative production data of Thailand and India, but no specific analysis of the changes is provided [31][32]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market Key Data Overview - Production and sales: The domestic sugar production and sales rate increased from 65.22% to 72.69%, and the new industrial inventory entered the destocking stage. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 5.57%, indicating that the spot inventory is low and the formation of warehouse receipts is slow [4]. - Import data: China's sugar import volume increased from 350,000 tons to 420,000 tons, a 20% increase; the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline month - on - month, but the June data has not been released [4]. - Downstream market: The report shows data such as the proportion of online retail in social consumer goods, the number of food industry enterprises, and the PPI of the sugar - making and downstream industries, but no specific analysis of the impact on the sugar market is provided [47][50]