LPG周报：需求负反馈显现，LPG相对原油走弱-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, weaker than crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the global supply divergence will decrease. On the demand side, although the peak season of the blending market is approaching, it has been operating at a high level. Once expectations are disappointed, a negative feedback loop may form quickly. Summer is also the traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little chance of unexpected changes. PDH profit has significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices may mainly fluctuate with crude oil. In the long - term, demand is expected to decline, and LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG行情回顾 - Market Review: Both the commercial volume of liquefied gas and the port arrivals decreased. Although chemical demand increased, civilian consumption was weak, leading to a decline in the market production - sales ratio and an increase in inventories at production enterprises and ports. Next week, supply will continue to decline, and traditional off - season demand shows no signs of improvement. However, considering the decrease in imported arrivals, port inventories are expected to decrease. On July 17, the average domestic civilian price was 4480 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from last Thursday, and the average price of ether - after carbon four was 4714 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan/ton from last Thursday [5]. - Logic and View: LPG futures oscillated downward this week, weaker than crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, global supply divergence will decrease. The blending market's peak season is approaching, but it has been operating at a high level. Once expectations are disappointed, a negative feedback loop may form quickly. Summer is the traditional off - season for civilian demand. PDH profit has recovered, which may support the operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices may follow crude oil. In the long - term, demand is expected to decline, and LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than rise [6]. - Key Strategy Recommendation: For futures, try shorting at high prices [7]. PART 02: LPG基本面 - Supply - Import: The report presents historical data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, and import volumes from different countries such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE [14][17]. - LPG Freight: It shows historical freight data from the Arabian Gulf to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East [20]. - LPG Inventory: The report provides historical data on port inventories, refinery capacity utilization rates, and factory inventories in China, as well as production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China [22][26]. - Industrial Indicators: It includes historical data on the operating rates and production margins of PDH, MTBE, and alkylated oil in China [31][33][35]. PART 03: LPG相关价格数据 - Import Cost: It shows the historical prices of CP far - month and current - month contracts, as well as the predicted prices of propane and butane in the external market, and the price trends of CP crude oil [40]. - Domestic Prices: The report presents historical data on the ex - factory prices of domestic civilian liquefied gas in Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao, as well as the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride [42][46][50]. PART 04: LPG其他数据 - Related Data: It includes historical data on the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses [54][56].