煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：旺季期待不减，煤价持续上行-20250720

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is entering a peak season due to sustained high temperatures, leading to increased residential and industrial electricity demand. It is expected that stable supply and rising demand may result in further increases in coal prices [1] - The report highlights a recent increase in port thermal coal prices, which rose by 10 CNY/ton to 642 CNY/ton as of July 18 [1][15] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased by 3.09 million tons week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also saw a decline of 12.69 million tons [1][25] - The report suggests that despite a positive market sentiment, actual transactions are insufficient to support the rising coal prices [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42% to 3534.48 points during the week of July 14 to July 18, while the coal sector index fell by 1.30% to 2530.07 points [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 410.86 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.44% compared to the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of July 18, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong South Suburb increased by 24 CNY/ton to 522 CNY/ton, while the price in Yanzhou rose by 20 CNY/ton to 890 CNY/ton [15] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remained stable at 664 CNY/ton as of July 16 [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The coal inventory in the Bohai Rim four ports increased by 4.5 million tons week-on-week, reaching 26.935 million tons [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes decreased by 0.24 CNY/ton to 34.83 CNY/ton [32] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resource stocks, particularly thermal coal elastic stocks, with specific attention to Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as undervalued options [36]