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国泰君安期货能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-20 12:32
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report LPG Part - This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. Supply slightly contracted, but seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined. Overall, prices fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, and the domestic basis strengthened due to the decline in PG futures. The price of etherified C4 oscillated downward and stabilized at the end of the week. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production start - up is likely to receive some short - term support [3][4]. Propylene Part - This week, the domestic propylene market price first declined and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, multiple restarted PDH units led to a significant increase in propylene supply, causing prices to decline. Later in the week, the restart of downstream parking units increased propylene demand, and prices stabilized [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG futures and paper prices showed certain fluctuations. For domestic spot and basis, civil gas prices in different regions had varying degrees of change, and the basis also changed. Regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates also had corresponding adjustments. Propane prices decreased compared to the previous period [8][10][18]. Supply - In domestic production, the total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 million tons, a slight reduction. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.2 million tons (-5.1%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.1 million tons (+0.7%). In terms of imports, the international vessel arrivals this week were 52.5 million tons (-16.4%). The production and imports of propane in China both decreased [4][38][45]. Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, civil combustion demand remained seasonally weak due to high temperatures. The PDH operating rate increased significantly this week, and it is expected to rise further next week. The MTBE operating rate continued to increase to 67.6%, up 0.8% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, domestic refinery inventories of LPG and civil gas slightly increased, and LPG terminal import inventories in East China, South China, and Shandong all increased [4][48][52]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, upstream prices such as NAP, methanol, and propane showed different degrees of decline. Propylene prices in different regions also changed, with prices in Shandong, East China, and South China falling by 85, 15, and 100 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Downstream product prices and profits also had corresponding fluctuations [77][79][90]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain, such as domestic majors, Shandong local refineries, and PDH, changed. The national and Shandong propylene balance sheets showed the supply and demand situation in different months, including production, demand, and balance quantities [98][100][109]. Supply - This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased due to the gradual return of previously shut - down PDH units. The weekly propylene output was 1.166 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period, and the industry's overall capacity utilization rate increased by 1.9% to 73.1% [5]. Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of propylene downstream industries increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as butanol, acrylic acid, and PO all increased, mainly due to the gradual return of multiple shut - down units [5]. Downstream Inventory No relevant content provided.