豪车税收政策调整，国产新能源品牌如何“弯道超车”？

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the automotive industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The adjustment of the ultra-luxury vehicle consumption tax aims to promote rational consumption and optimize the tax structure, with the threshold lowered from Rmb1.3 million to Rmb900,000, affecting both new energy vehicles (NEVs) and traditional luxury vehicles [1][9]. - The new tax policy is expected to significantly increase the purchase cost of ultra-luxury vehicles, dampening demand in the Rmb900,000–1.3 million price range, which accounted for only about 20,000 units sold in the first half of 2025 [2][10]. - Domestic NEV brands are presented with a historical opportunity to capture market share in the high-end segment, while imported brands like Porsche face significant challenges due to their reliance on models priced within the affected range [3][12]. Summary by Sections Tax Policy Changes - The consumption tax for ultra-luxury vehicles has been adjusted to include a 10% tax at the retail stage, while NEVs remain exempt from production-stage taxes, leading to a lower overall tax burden for NEVs compared to traditional fuel vehicles [2][11]. - Second-hand ultra-luxury vehicles are exempt from the consumption tax, which may stimulate the used car market and encourage consumers to opt for these vehicles to avoid new tax burdens [2][11]. Market Impact - The new tax policy is expected to further squeeze the market share of high-end imported brands, particularly Porsche, which saw a 49% year-on-year decline in sales in the first half of 2025 [3][12]. - Traditional luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW are also anticipated to face pressure, with the pricing center for high-end NEVs expected to shift towards the Rmb500,000–600,000 range [3][12]. Strategic Adjustments - Imported brands must quickly adapt their strategies, either by reducing prices below Rmb900,000 or enhancing vehicle configurations to maintain competitiveness [4][13]. - Domestic brands, benefiting from tax exemptions, have more flexibility in pricing strategies, allowing them to mitigate the impact of the new tax policy through adjustments in vehicle configurations [4][14]. Fiscal Implications - The expansion of the tax base is projected to increase consumption tax revenue, helping to offset declines in ultra-luxury vehicle sales, with consumption tax revenue in the first five months of 2025 totaling Rmb772.9 billion, up 1.6% year-on-year [5][16]. - The policy encourages automakers to focus on the mid- to low-end NEV market, aligning with the trend of rising NEV price ceilings and discouraging blind expansion into the ultra-premium segment [5][16].