宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数上涨1.09%-20250720

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment shows a strong performance in the first half of the year, with actual GDP growth of 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for the annual target of 5.0% [2][22] - Industrial added value and retail sales both maintained strong growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2][22] - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8%, although real estate development investment saw a decline of 11.2% [22][33] Group 2 - The report maintains a preference for asset allocation in the order of stocks, commodities, bonds, and currency, indicating a bullish outlook on stocks [3][4] - The stock market showed positive performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 3.17% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04% [37] - The bond market remains under pressure, with a recommendation for lower allocation due to potential short-term impacts from stock market fluctuations [4][43] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand, especially in light of uncertainties in external demand due to U.S. tariff policies [2][22] - The central urban work conference emphasized the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on quality improvement rather than quantity expansion [20][33] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting consumption, with significant year-on-year growth in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles [33][40]