国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions. There may still be opportunities to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter [6]. - Brent and WTI may still have opportunities to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the medium - to - long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. This year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [6]. - Logic: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in the first half of the third quarter, mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. In the medium - to - long term, it is bearish, mainly due to the large long - term oversupply pressure caused by increased production from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a further increase [6]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading - buy on dips in the short term and conduct band trading; sell on rallies in the long term and conduct trend trading. For inter - period trading, focus on going long on the 09 contract and short on the 10 or 11 contracts. For inter - commodity trading, stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - U.S. long - term Treasury yields fluctuate significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds [12]. - Overseas inflation rises, and the service PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [18][19]. 3.2 Supply - Global diesel supply remains tight. Refineries are restricted by the increasing proportion of light crude oil and have difficulty increasing production. Geopolitical conflicts and sanctions disrupt the supply chain. OPEC+ is accelerating the exit from production cuts, but non - OPEC+ supply growth may lead to a supply surplus risk in Q4 2025 [6]. - OPEC+ core member countries: Iraq has a production of 3.96 million barrels per day with a shortfall of 130,000 barrels per day; the UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil in July; Saudi Arabia's production in June is 9.75 million barrels per day, exceeding the target by 380,000 barrels per day and leading the OPEC+ production increase plan in August [7]. - Non - OPEC+ countries: U.S. crude oil production reaches a record high of 13.47 million barrels per day in April, but the profitability of WTI exports to Europe and Asia has deteriorated. Kazakhstan's CPC Blend production reaches a record high, exacerbating the surplus of light oil in Europe. Venezuela's production and exports are expected to decline [8]. 3.3 Demand - Seasonal peak demand continues. Diesel demand is rigid, but jet fuel growth diverts medium - distillate production capacity. Asian processing volume is at a high level, but increased exports alleviate the surplus. Gasoline demand is weak, and the LPG substitution effect weakens naphtha demand [6]. - Different regions: Asian demand is affected by factors such as tariffs and the substitution of Venezuelan crude oil. European refineries are cautious due to conflicts, and North American refinery closures force policy adjustments [10]. 3.4 Inventory - U.S. commercial inventories rebound, and Cushing region inventories stabilize but are significantly lower than historical averages. European crude oil inventories rebound, while diesel and gasoline inventories decline. Domestic refined - oil profit margins are restored [62][76][78]. 3.5 Price and Spread - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the month - spread declines, SC is stronger than the external market, and the month - spread strengthens. Net long positions decline [82][83][85].