聚丙烯产业链周报：市场情绪带动反弹，但需谨防回调风险-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene market rebounded driven by market sentiment, but there is a need to guard against callback risks [1]. - The production volume this week met expectations, with no new maintenance devices. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production volume may increase slightly. - The cost side fluctuated this week, and it is expected to change little next week. PP prices fluctuated, and production profits are expected to rebound first and then continue to weaken. - The basis and inter - month spreads of polypropylene fluctuated, and the spreads between varieties and on the disk also showed different trends. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit earlier. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - Production Volume: This week's production volume was 77.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 million tons. In the next two weeks, production volume may increase slightly as device maintenance decreases [6]. - Maintenance Loss Volume: This week, the maintenance loss volume was 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 million tons [6]. - Import and Export: The weekly average import volume was 7.50 million tons, and the export volume was 3.75 million tons, both remaining unchanged from last week. In May, exports were 31.03 million tons, and imports were 25.27 million tons, meeting expectations [6]. Demand - Apparent Demand: This week's apparent demand was 83.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.64 million tons. Next week, the seasonal expected apparent demand is about 81 million tons [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis showed an overall oscillating trend, with limited basis opportunities. The 09 + 40 yuan/ton basis quote was around in the spot market [6][54]. Inter - month Spread - The inter - month spread oscillated and weakened. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 17 to 8 [9]. Variety Spread - The spreads between different polypropylene varieties, such as fiber -拉丝, copolymer -拉丝, etc., showed different trends. The narrow spread between pellets and powders provided some support for pellet prices [9]. Disk Spread - The LL - PP spread oscillated this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later. The multi - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit earlier [9]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Supply: In the future, as device maintenance decreases, production volume may increase slightly. - Demand: Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 81 million tons according to the seasonal pattern. - Inventory: This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. - Cost: The cost side fluctuated this week, and it is expected to change little next week. - Profit: PP production profits are expected to rebound first and then continue to weaken. - Strategy: For the cross - variety strategy, the multi - PP and short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit. For the unilateral strategy, beware of callback risks. For the option strategy, buy put options [11].