能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250720

1. Investment Rating of the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on natural rubber this week is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply release expectation has not been fulfilled due to weather disturbances in Thailand, and the raw material support is strong. The demand shows a benign and improving trend in the all - steel tire segment, while the semi - steel tire situation is just satisfactory. The short - term trading of natural rubber will revolve around weather and supply volume, and the macro - economic factors will also impact the market [81]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased, with the export volume reaching 471 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year increase, and the export value reaching 83.5 billion yuan, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease, and the production from January to June increased by 2% year - on - year to 591.668 million pieces [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Cambodia's latex exports decreased by 20% year - on - year to 112,595 tons, and the income decreased by 2.3% year - on - year to $208 million. However, domestic latex consumption increased by 92% to 53,361 tons. In the same period, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year to 751,672 tons [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 24.1% year - on - year to 4.075 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise, with the domestic market rising more. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 14,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.13%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 12,675 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.30%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 169.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.23%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 324.40 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.01% [11][12]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 18, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 8.38%; the RU09 - BR09 spread was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.25% [22][23]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeast is slightly lower, and the rainfall in the south has eased. In China, Hainan and Yunnan have experienced more rainfall recently, with rainfall in Hainan decreasing month - on - month [42][44]. - Due to the rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas, the short - term supply has been disrupted, and the price of Thai cup lump has risen significantly, with strong upstream cost support. On July 18, 2025, the price of Thai cup lump was 48.60 baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [48][49]. - The Thai water - cup spread and the spread of Hainan latex for concentrated latex factory - for whole - milk factory decreased. On July 18, 2025, the Thai water - cup spread was 5.90 baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.23% [56][57]. - The processing profits of Thai standard rubber and concentrated latex recovered, the processing profit of Hainan concentrated latex improved, and the profit of Thai smoked sheets decreased. On July 18, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 42 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.42% [59][60]. - In May 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [63][64]. 3.3.2 Demand - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.56%; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.42%. The inventory days of all - steel tires were 40.85 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.92% [67][68]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. In June 2025, the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate, and in May 2025, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [71][72]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2952 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.81%; the inventory of light - colored rubber was 497,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [73]. - On July 18, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 186,600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.09%; the futures and spot inventory was 212,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [77][78].