纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20250720

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Pure Benzene and Styrene [1] - Author: Huang Tianyuan from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: July 20, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Short - term anti - involution sentiment is high but actual impact is limited, squeezing EB profits [3] - Pure benzene supply and demand both increase, styrene supply increases while demand decreases, and profit compression is the main trend in the short - term [3] - Benzene ethylene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly a short - position allocation [3] - The short - term market for pure benzene has support at 5600 - 5700, and attention should be paid to positions for squeezing styrene profits [3] Group 4: Supply - related Summaries Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic: In July, the planned maintenance loss is about 100,000 tons (Fuhai, Fuhai Chuang, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical), and it will drop to 40,000 tons in August. Pay attention to the commissioning of CNOOC Daxie on July 18 and new devices such as Yulong Petrochemical (reforming + disproportionation), Jilin Petrochemical, Jingbo, and Hunan Petrochemical in August [3] - Import: The US has imposed continuous tariffs on overseas and restarted domestic downstream devices, causing the US pure benzene price to stabilize and rebound. The USGC BZ premium over RBOB continues to rise. After July, due to poor pure benzene economics, the yield is still decreasing. The STDP device profit is negative. The US styrene profit has been squeezed from the high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The European market has poor cracking profits and is considering reducing the load. The European pure benzene spot volume is limited, and factories are actively destocking and increasing contract volumes. About 30,000 tons of pure benzene were shipped from Europe to the US from May to June. In June, Europe imported more than 100,000 tons of styrene. The US - > EU EB window is currently closed from July to August. European downstream plans a 2 - 3 - week seasonal maintenance in August. Pay attention to the opening of the pure benzene EU/Korea - > US and styrene US - > EU windows [3] Styrene Supply - Recently, there has been a large increase in supply. Liaoning Baolai's 350,000 - ton device has restarted, and new devices such as Jingbo Petrochemical's 680,000 - ton (August) and Jilin Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton (September) are about to be commissioned [3] Other Downstream Supply - Caprolactam: Hengyi's 300,000 - ton new device in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be commissioned from August to September [3] - Phenol: The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou and Jiangsu Yangnong is about to end. New devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton will be commissioned from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to be commissioned in October [3] Group 5: Demand - related Summaries Aniline Demand - Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted. Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new device has been commissioned and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans a rotational maintenance from August to September [3] Styrene Downstream 3S Hard Rubber Demand - EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season pattern, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. ABS overall demand remains medium - high and shows resilience [3] Group 6: Valuation - related Summaries Absolute Price Valuation - Based on a crude oil price of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton. When Brent crude oil rises to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton [3] EB Processing Fee - Currently, the ethane risk is eliminated, and port styrene inventory is continuously accumulating. The reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [3] Group 7: Strategy - related Summaries - Unilateral: Short - term strong and volatile, medium - term bearish [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: Buy BZ03 and sell EB09 to squeeze profits [3] Group 8: Pure Benzene Futures - related Summaries Contract Rules - Trading unit: 30 tons/hand; Quotation unit: yuan (RMB)/ton; Minimum price change: 1 yuan/ton; Daily price limit: 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price; Contract months: January - December; Trading time: 9:00 - 11:30 am, 13:30 - 15:00 pm from Monday to Friday, and other trading times specified by the exchange; Last trading day: The 4th last trading day of the contract month; Last delivery day: The 3rd trading day after the last trading day; Delivery grade: Dalian Commodity Exchange's pure benzene delivery quality standard; Delivery location: Dalian Commodity Exchange's designated pure benzene delivery warehouses; Minimum trading margin: 8% of the contract value; Delivery method: Physical delivery; Trading code: BZ; Listed exchange: Dalian Commodity Exchange [8] Initial Margin and Price Limit - The initial trading margin standard for pure benzene futures contracts is 8%, the daily price limit is ±7%, and the daily price limit on the listing day is ±14% of the contract listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5900 yuan/ton [9] Risk Control System - Price limit and margin: Comprehensive consideration of historical data, the situation of listed liquid varieties, industry cycles, and upstream - downstream product arbitrage [9] - General monthly position limit: 2000 lots, referring to the position of the styrene main contract, equivalent to 60,000 tons [9] - Position limit in the month before the delivery month: 400 lots, setting a reasonable gradient by referring to listed varieties [9] - Position limit in the delivery month: 200 lots, calculated according to the production volume of medium - sized pure benzene enterprises, meeting the hedging needs of general enterprises in the delivery month [9] Delivery Quality Standard - The pure benzene futures delivery quality standard follows the national standard 545, conforming to spot habits, using the international indicator system and requirements, and is fully in line with the actual spot situation [10] Delivery System - One - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash (FTC) delivery; Combining factory warehouse and warehouse systems, with factory warehouse delivery as the main method and warehouse delivery as auxiliary, and the process is the same as that of listed varieties; Warehouse management: Warehouses receive goods according to spot habits. The delivery qualification for pure benzene futures is the same as that for styrene and LPG, which is a hazardous chemical qualification, with full - process management of delivery qualifications. Adopting the group - based delivery method implemented for existing agricultural products and PVC varieties to facilitate industrial enterprises with factories or warehouses in multiple locations to participate in delivery [10] Cheapest Deliverable Goods - The overall delivery setting is uniform. Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai are the benchmark areas; Fujian and Guangdong have a price difference of 0 yuan/ton; Shandong has a price difference of - 50 yuan/ton; Tianjin, Hebei, and Anhui have a price difference of - 120 yuan/ton; Liaoning has a price difference of - 200 yuan/ton. The total supply in these areas is 24.28 million tons, accounting for 83%, the total consumption is 23.96 million tons, accounting for 82%, and there are 122 production enterprises, accounting for 69% [12] Group 9: Industry Chain Investment - related Summaries 2025 H2 - Upstream and downstream production capacity commissioning in total: 2.28 million tons of pure benzene, 600,000 tons of hydrogenated benzene, 2.3 million tons of styrene, 300,000 tons of caprolactam, 750,000 tons of phenol, 660,000 tons of aniline, and 0 tons of adipic acid [32] 2026 - 2027 - In 2026, upstream and downstream production capacity commissioning in total: 1.61 million tons of pure benzene, 2.9 million tons of styrene, 830,000 tons of phenol, 360,000 tons of aniline, and 300,000 tons of adipic acid; In 2027, upstream and downstream production capacity commissioning in total: 2.145 million tons of pure benzene, 2.73 million tons of styrene, and 150,000 tons of adipic acid [33] Group 10: Styrene - related Summaries - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene production contracted [82] - Current situation: High inventory, high profit, and high production [84] - Attention should be paid to the issue of the ratio of aromatics to olefins [81]