能源化工纸浆周度报告-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a weak divergence between futures and spot prices this week, and the futures market may fluctuate with a slight upward bias. Although the futures price remains relatively high due to macro - policy expectations, the spot price has insufficient upward momentum due to the deadlock in fundamentals, and the abnormal futures - spot price difference is likely to continue. It is expected that the short - term futures market may follow the overall commodity market sentiment, but the fundamentals may limit its rebound range. The futures market valuation is slightly high, being greatly affected by funds and sentiment. The recommended strategies are to take a slightly bullish view on the unilateral market, wait and see for the inter - period spread, and there is no recommendation for the inter - variety spread [78]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Industry News - As of July 17, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 60.8 tons, up 0.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.5% increase. Qingdao Port's inventory was 134.9 tons, down 1.5 tons from last week, a 1.1% decrease. Gaolan Port's inventory was 8.9 tons, down 0.9 tons from last week, a 9.2% decrease. The total inventory of mainstream ports was 218.1 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% increase, showing a slight inventory build - up [6]. - In June 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 16.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume for the year was 18.578 million tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - On July 11, 2025, the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp project's No. 2 line of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation, strengthening the company's raw material self - supply ability [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On July 18, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 628 yuan/ton, down 8.45% from the previous period and up 115.07% year - on - year; the basis of Russian Needle was 8 yuan/ton, down 87.88% from the previous period and up 107.41% year - on - year; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 55.00% year - on - year [13]. - On July 18, 2025, the 09 - 11 spread was not provided, and the 11 - 01 spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 33.33% from the previous period; the 11 - 01 spread was - 182 yuan/ton, up 6.19% from the previous period [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed. On July 18, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1820 yuan/ton, down 4.21% from the previous period and up 102.22% year - on - year; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1200 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the previous period and up 140.00% year - on - year [26]. - The import profit of Silver Star decreased slightly. On July 18, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was 22 yuan/ton, down 7.55% from the previous period and up 103.61% year - on - year; the import profit of Star was - 1964 yuan/ton, up 80.03% from the previous period and up 97.91% year - on - year [33][34]. - The futures price of pulp showed a slightly stronger trend, and the quotes of some softwood pulp grades adjusted slightly with the market. However, downstream paper mills still faced shipment pressure and had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials, restricting the upward momentum of the spot price of imported softwood pulp [39]. - Traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the spot price of imported hardwood pulp increased slightly. However, downstream paper mills' inquiry intention decreased, the market transaction slowed down, and the upward space of the price was limited [41]. - On July 18, 2025, the price of Venus was 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and down 6.54% year - on - year; the price of Kunhe was 3700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 1.37% year - on - year [46]. 3.3.2 Supply - In May 2025, the pulp inventory in European ports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the global pulp shipment volume increased month - on - month [49]. - In May 2025, the month - on - month performance of pulp import volume was divergent. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased by 7.84% month - on - month [52]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of finished paper showed different trends. On July 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 76.10%, up 3.66% from the previous period and down 1.30% year - on - year; that of household paper was 63.10%, down 0.16% from the previous period and up 6.66% year - on - year; that of offset paper was 56.17%, down 1.04% from the previous period and down 9.90% year - on - year; that of coated paper was 57.59%, up 0.52% from the previous period and down 5.90% year - on - year [56]. - The price of white cardboard decreased steadily, and downstream demand was weak. The price of household paper continued to decline weakly, with no improvement in terminal demand. The price of coated paper decreased slightly, and the supply was abundant but the social demand was weak. The price of offset paper remained stable, with balanced production and sales to some extent but weak social orders [59][62][64]. - As the pulp price rebounded, the profit of finished paper continued to decline. On July 18, 2025, the profit of white cardboard was 515 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from the previous period and up 14.44% year - on - year; that of household paper was 174.60 yuan/ton, down 14.12% from the previous period and down 5.99% year - on - year; that of offset paper was 63.66 yuan/ton, down 41.31% from the previous period and up 189.36% year - on - year; that of coated paper was 794 yuan/ton, down 4.68% from the previous period and up 38.21% year - on - year [65][67]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of July 18, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.67 tons, up 3.28% from the previous period and down 49.70% year - on - year; the warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.93 tons, unchanged from the previous period and down 39.94% year - on - year [69]. - The port inventory was at a high level for the year, showing a slight inventory build - up this period. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased slightly, Changshu Port's inventory increased slightly, and the inventory of other ports remained stable [74].