白糖：区间整理，内强外弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market lacks information guidance and will mainly undergo low - level consolidation. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The 24/25 sugar - making season is likely to see a large global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to have restorative production increases and inventory accumulation in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The downward trend of New York raw sugar has ended, and it will mainly oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][35] - The domestic market will experience range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market maintains the expectation of continuous production increase and cost reduction. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has been tightened, and domestic prices will move closer to the cost of out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [3][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 98.46 (previous value 97.87), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.55 (previous value 5.57) [6] - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $66.03 per barrel, a decrease of 3.96% [6] 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 16.79 cents per pound, an increase of 1.39%. The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 6040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5826 yuan per ton, an increase of 16 yuan per ton compared to last week. The basis of the main contract is basically flat [15] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 21,477 lots [15] - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of July 15, fund long positions increased by 2480 lots, fund short positions decreased by 2682 lots, and net long positions increased by 5162 lots to - 94,560 lots, with a slight increase in net long positions [15] 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) expects a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous value was a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [24] - Brazil: As of July 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 206 million tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last year; sugar production was 12.25 million tons, a 14% decrease; alcohol production was 9.43 billion liters, a 15% decrease; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio was 51.02%, compared to 48.69% in the same period last year [24] - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons [24] - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [25] - China's supply - demand data: CAOC expects domestic sugar production of 11.16 million tons, consumption of 15.8 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season; and production of 11.2 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season. Customs data shows that in June 2025, sugar imports were 420,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 sugar - making season were 2.51 million tons [15][25] - China's production - sales data: As of the end of May, in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The national sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69% [15][25] 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Lack information guidance and mainly conduct low - level consolidation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [35] - Domestic market: Conduct range - bound consolidation with a pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets. Trading is centered around the import rhythm, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets will continue [35]