硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250720

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy is expanding. The alloy market shows the characteristics of "rising driven by sentiment and still supported by demand". The steel tender prices of both have increased month - on - month, but over - chasing is not recommended. Producers should sell at high points. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration during the delivery period of the main contract. The sustainability of high levels of finished steel supply and steel mill profits is still in doubt. High - frequency tracking of port ore quotes and hot metal production should be maintained, waiting for market sentiment to ease and actual production cut signals from steel mills [4]. - This week, the alloy price trend was affected by macro - level boosts and the expected increase in long - term cost, leading to an upward price trend. If the supply of silicon and manganese ferroalloys continues to expand, the alloy price may face pressure after the market sentiment fades [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - Price Trend: This week, the 2509 contract of silicon ferroalloy closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2509 contract of manganese ferroalloy closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - Spot Price: The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in major regions in China fluctuated, with the aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in main production areas ranging from 5,150 to 5,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of silicon manganese in major regions was in the range of 5,550 - 5,760 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis: The basis of both silicon and manganese ferroalloys fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the off - season reverse arbitrage of silicon ferroalloy [16]. 2. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - Supply: This week, the silicon ferroalloy output was 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The weekly operating rate was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points from last week. The supply is expected to rebound rapidly after the resumption of production in large factories in Inner Mongolia [24]. - Demand: - Steel - making demand: The actual output of downstream hot metal increased month - on - month. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [37]. - Non - steel demand: The output of stainless steel crude steel in June was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.01%. The planned output of stainless steel crude steel in July decreased by 4.32% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in June was 68,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.23%. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in May was 36,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [42]. - Inventory: - Sample enterprise inventory: As of July 18, the inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 63,540 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons. - Warehouse receipt inventory: As of July 18, the number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 21,950, a week - on - week increase of 1,431, with a converted inventory of 109,750 tons. The warehouse receipt registration rate slowed down. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days, a decrease of 1.13 days [47]. - Profit: Affected by the decrease in settlement electricity prices in some regions and the decline in semi - coke prices, the cost center of silicon ferroalloy shifted down, and the profit followed the upward trend of the market [58]. 3. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - Supply: This week, the manganese ferroalloy output was 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.3%. The weekly operating rate was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from last week. The supply in the northern main production areas continued to resume [62]. - Raw Material: - Overseas quotes: The quotes of overseas manganese ore enterprises showed a mixed trend. Some semi - carbonate ore quotes increased, while some oxide ore quotes decreased. - Port price: The port prices of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port increased slightly. The global manganese ore departure volume expanded month - on - month, but the recent arrival volume may tighten, and the port demand release rate slowed down [69]. - Demand: - Steel - making demand: The actual output of downstream hot metal increased month - on - month. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons. However, the output of rebar and building materials decreased this week, and the overall demand support for manganese ferroalloy may weaken marginally [84]. - Inventory: - Sample enterprise inventory: As of July 18, the inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons. - Warehouse receipt inventory: As of July 18, the number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 79,931, a week - on - week decrease of 5,106, with a converted inventory of 399,655 tons. The warehouse receipt destocking rate accelerated. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of silicon manganese inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days, a decrease of 1.25 days [92]. - Profit: The cost support was relatively stable, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy followed the upward price trend [96].