铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250720

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][6] Core Viewpoints - The industry's start - up has shown differentiation, and in the short term, it is expected to be range - bound [2][6] - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space in the short term, but the cost - support logic remains [6] Summary by Directory Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.97 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73% [14] - The scrap - refined price difference has declined [20] Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has been flat, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 has converged [27] - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly start - up rate has increased [37] - ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average is estimated to be in a loss [38] - The explicit and implicit inventory of cast alloy has slightly decreased [43] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [45] - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are presented, with different production shares in various regions [48][49] Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has been transmitted to die - casting consumption [55] - In July (July 7 - July 13), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars was 333,000, a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [6]