锌产业链周度报告-20250720

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of zinc is neutral, indicating that the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the medium - term, it remains bearish [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has seen an expected increase. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, refineries and port inventories of zinc concentrate are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a historical median. After concentrated domestic refinery maintenance, production has increased, along with new projects. Thus, supply pressure has risen, and the surplus logic may be evident in the accumulation of social inventories. The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally, and the space for restocking has shrunk. In the short - term, the accumulation of social inventories is relatively moderate, which makes short - sellers cautious. Coupled with the short - term improvement in the macro - environment, zinc prices are mainly in a range - bound state. In the medium - to long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Regarding internal - external strategies, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, so short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison (Inventory, Profit, and Operating Rate) Inventory - Zinc ore and refinery finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased but remains low [10] Profit - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [12][13] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical median. The refined zinc monthly operating rate is at a high level compared to the same period. The operating rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a relatively low level [14][15] 2. Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position) Spot - The spot premium has significantly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][23] Spread - The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [25] Inventory - Domestic inventory is at a low level but shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME total inventory has slightly increased in the short - term and is at a historical median. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [35][37][39] Futures - The domestic position volume is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [43] 3. Supply (Zinc Concentrate, Refined Zinc, and Secondary Zinc Oxide) Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc mine production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high compared to the same period [46][47] Refined Zinc - Smelting production has marginally recovered, refinery finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median [48][51] 4. Zinc Demand (Downstream Processed Materials and End - Users) Downstream - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [59][62] End - Users - The real estate sector remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [75] 5. Overseas Factors (Natural Gas, Carbon, and Electricity) - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in different European countries show different trends over time [77][78][79]