棕榈油：基本面无有效利空，宏观情绪助推，豆油：美豆天气良好，品种间偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Palm oil shows an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern due to multiple factors such as the digestion of inventory highs, positive domestic macro - sentiment, and potential supply reduction in the international market. However, there are uncertainties in production in July - August, and there may be a callback if inventory accumulates more than expected. There are opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [2][5]. - Soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. With good weather for US soybeans, it currently lacks its own effective drivers and mainly follows the trend of the oil and fat sector. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the future [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the slight increase in inventory in the June MPOB report, the negative impact was digested, and the market started to trade the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. With positive domestic macro - sentiment and a rebound in crude oil, the palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations drove up US soybeans, which improved the weak reality of domestic soybean oil. But its fundamentals were still not as strong as palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread shrank significantly, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [1]. This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Fundamental situation: The negative impact of the slight increase in June inventory has been digested, and there are no new effective negatives. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. The production increase rate in Malaysia from June - August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July - August may be lower than the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and Malaysia may still de - stock in July. In Indonesia, the price of palm oil and fruit bunches is high, and the trade sentiment is positive [2]. - Market factors: The US biodiesel policy is expected to reduce the supply of US soybean oil in the international market by at least 1.4 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, which may lead to a systemic increase in the international oil and fat market. Palm oil is sensitive to this, and bulls may pre - layout for the second - half - year market [2]. - Risk factors: If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields from July - August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August - September. However, if the crude oil price center rises, the downward space for palm oil will be limited. If the inventory accumulates more than expected from August - September, and there are negative factors such as the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and a decline in crude oil prices, palm oil may still have a callback. Also, be vigilant about the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production and early de - stocking from July - August [2][5]. Soybean Oil - Fundamental situation: The weather speculation for US soybeans is currently weak. Good rainfall in the Midwest is conducive to the growth of US soybeans, and the yield outlook is positive. Domestic soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with rapid inventory accumulation recently [4]. - Potential opportunities: If the purchase of US soybeans for the September shipment is not carried out, there may be an increase in forward crushing profit and Brazilian premium, which may benefit soybean oil. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if there is a shortage of soybean imports due to Sino - US trade issues, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4]. 盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts) - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,682 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,972 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,644 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,964 yuan/ton, with a rise of 3.25%. The trading volume was 2,877,519 lots, a decrease of 176,462 lots, and the open interest was 557,055 lots, an increase of 44,257 lots [7]. - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 7,986 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,176 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,958 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,160 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.18%. The trading volume was 3,053,981 lots, a decrease of 10,092 lots, and the open interest was 558,184 lots, an increase of 54,927 lots [7]. 油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory may turn to decline. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter. The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621,770 tons, a 6.16% decrease compared to the same period last month [9][11]. - Price spread: The India - Malaysia 24 - degree FOB price spread has slightly declined. The POGO spread has rebounded significantly. The India palm oil import profit has stabilized and rebounded, and the India soybean - palm CNF spread has slightly increased [11][13]. - Import data: The cumulative import of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 310,000 tons, and the cumulative import of four major oils and fats has decreased by 590,000 tons [13].