能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250720

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - This week, fuel oil prices rebounded overall, and the strength comparison between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil changed. For high-sulfur fuel oil, global refinery operations reached a seasonal high, and exports from the Middle East and Russia increased significantly. Despite the relatively strong price trend compared to low-sulfur fuel oil this week and being in the peak demand season for marine and power generation, it is difficult for high-sulfur fuel oil to have continuous upward movement due to the obvious supply recovery. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply recovery trend is also obvious. The maintenance of Japanese refineries is gradually ending, exports from Brazil are gradually recovering, and exports from Kuwait are also increasing, which may lead to a weakening of spot prices in the Asia-Pacific region in the future. In the domestic market, major refineries are likely to ensure gasoline and diesel production in the next two months, so they will not significantly increase low-sulfur fuel oil production, and the domestic LU price still has fundamental support in the short term [4]. - Valuation: FU: 2850 - 3000, LU: 3500 - 3700 [4]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Follow the upward trend of crude oil and fluctuate strongly. 2) Inter - term: The back structure of FU and LU continues, but the increase in near - term supply will suppress the monthly spread at a low level. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread has fallen to the historical average; the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation units), including independent refineries and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil from 2021 - 2025 are shown [19]. Demand - Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [22]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2025 are provided [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujeirah, Singapore, and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are presented [34][35][37]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [40][41][44]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU from 2021 - 2025 are presented [47][50][53]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the price spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, as well as the viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2025 are provided [57][59]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Data on the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [62][64][65]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2023 - 2025 are provided [69][70]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [75][77][78]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions are provided [80]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions are provided [82]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Futures and Spot Market Internal - External Spreads: Data on the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets from 2021 - 2025 are presented [85][89][90]. - FU and LU Position and Volume Changes: Data on the position and volume changes of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [95][97][100]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the warehouse receipt quantity changes of FU and LU from 2020 - 2025 are presented [106][107][108].