国泰君安期货金银周报-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 the previous week to 87.5, the 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.03%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.44% (2 - year 3.88%), and the US dollar index was 98.46 [5]. - Gold prices continued to fluctuate within a narrow range and rose slightly. The June CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, with the core CPI year - on - year at 2.9% and the overall CPI at 2.7%. The US economy showed resilience after the tariff shock. Gold is difficult to have a trending market, while the gold - silver ratio continued to decline, and silver broke through 9,000 yuan/kg. If it breaks through 9,000 yuan, it may reach around $40 in the third quarter, but there is still downward pressure on prices in the second half of the year due to the weakening demand for silver paste [5]. - The price of silver tends to be stronger relative to gold, and the gold - silver ratio may be frequently repaired. When silver breaks through, there may be a rapid upward movement, and the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline, with gold also being relatively strong [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - Price and Change: This week, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9,273 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.58%, and the night - session closing price was 4380 yuan, with a night - session decline of 1.68%. The closing price of Silver T + D was 9,211 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.03%. For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 777.02 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 870,782 lots, an increase of 269,669 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 479,676 lots, an increase of 76,720 lots. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2510 was 54,415 lots, a decrease of 12,354 lots, and the open interest was 129,798 lots, a decrease of 159 lots [6]. - Inventory and Position Changes: The inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 92,517 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver increased by 2,324,290 ounces. The inventory of Shanghai gold increased by 4,272 kg, and the inventory of Comex gold increased by 445,088 ounces [6]. - Price Difference Changes: The spot - to - futures price difference of silver decreased by 50 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.61 yuan. The monthly price difference of silver decreased by 4 yuan, and that of gold increased by 0.8 yuan [6]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index closed at 98.46 this week, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CNY spot) was 7.18, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [6]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Position) - Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to -$15.55/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was -$10.5/ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract widened to -$0.686/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was -$0.145/ounce [11][14]. - Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference: This week, the gold spot - futures price difference was -4.26 yuan/g, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures price difference was -12 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [17][20]. - Monthly Price Difference: This week, the gold monthly price difference was 5.4 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly price difference was 74 yuan/g, at the upper end of the historical range [24][28]. - Cross - month Arbitrage Delivery Cost: The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 9.30 yuan/g, and that of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 14.57 yuan/g. The cross - month positive arbitrage delivery cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 119.48 yuan/kg, and that of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 167.88 yuan/kg [31][34]. - Delivery Fee Direction: This week, the gold delivery fee at the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The silver delivery fee was also mainly paid by longs to shorts [35]. - Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.04 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4.36 million ounces to 494.92 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.7%. The gold futures inventory increased by 3,129 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1,303 tons [37][39][41]. - CFTC Non - commercial Positions: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver decreased slightly [43]. - ETF Positions: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 0.02 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 21.5 tons [49][51]. - Gold - Silver Ratio: This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 91.8 last week to 90.4 [53]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was 0.2%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 4.8% [55]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rate: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [60]. - Non - farm Employment Performance: Data on new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, showing the overall situation of the non - farm employment market [68][72]. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - Economic and Inflation Surprise Indexes: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content. - Fed Rate - cut Probability: The probability of Fed rate cuts in different time periods was presented, showing the market's expectations for Fed monetary policy [77].