镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性空间不锈钢：现实与宏观博弈，钢价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macroeconomic and news factors boost expectations, but the real - world fundamentals limit price elasticity. The potential policy on the nickel ore HPM formula may affect costs, while the support from the ore end is weakening, and the supply expectation restricts the upside space [4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although the negative feedback has affected supply, the macro - boost and cost factors will limit the deep decline [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The industry is in a state of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term demand from downstream has increased, and the market has certain anti - decline ability [30][31][34]. - Polysilicon: It is a policy - driven market. It is safer to go long on dips. The policy expectation of "anti - involution" drives the price up, but the transmission of price increases to the terminal is not smooth [30][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the renewal of mining licenses in August. The supply and demand situation is affected by regional mining rights policies [63][64][66]. - Palm Oil: With no new effective negative factors in the fundamentals and the boost of macro - sentiment, the market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year [87]. - Soybean Oil: Although the expectation of Sino - US trade easing has improved the weak reality, its fundamentals are still not as strong as palm oil, and it follows the upward trend of the oil and fat sector [87]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals - Nickel: Macro and news improve risk preference, but the support from the ore end weakens, and the supply from the smelting end restricts the upside [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macro - expectations boost the market, but the real - world supply - demand is weak. The cost factor limits the deep decline of nickel - iron prices [5]. - Inventory Changes - Nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased [6]. - Stainless Steel: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased week - on - week, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [7]. - Market News - Multiple events such as production resumptions, suspensions, and policy - related news in the nickel and stainless - steel industries have been reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends - Industrial Silicon: The futures and spot prices both increased [30]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rose significantly, and the spot price also increased [30]. - Supply and Demand - Industrial Silicon: Supply increased slightly, and the industry inventory decreased. The short - term demand from downstream increased [31]. - Polysilicon: The short - term supply increased, and the upstream inventory decreased. The terminal demand weakened, and the price transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - Market Views - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. It is recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - Polysilicon: It is a policy - driven market. It is safer to go long on dips [35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends - The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate both increased, and the basis and contract spreads changed [63]. - Supply and Demand - Supply: There are policy issues in the lithium resource mining rights in Jiangxi and Qinghai, but the short - term output continues to increase [64]. - Demand: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slows down, and the new energy storage installation scale decreases [65]. - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate increases, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreases [65]. - Market Views - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. Pay attention to the renewal of mining licenses in August [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Price Trends - Palm Oil: The 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [87]. - Soybean Oil: The 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [87]. - Market Logic - Palm Oil: After the negative impact of the MPOB report was digested, the market started to trade the de - stocking market, and was boosted by macro - sentiment [87]. - Soybean Oil: The expectation of Sino - US trade easing improved the weak reality, but the fundamentals are not as strong as palm oil [87].