中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告：中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告-20250720

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Likely factors: The quality of new - season apples may be worse year - on - year, and there is still an expectation of a high opening price for new - season apples [4]. - Negative factors: The output of new - season apples is basically the same as last year, the price of inventory apples is falling, and apples perform mediocrely during the off - season [4]. - Market situation: In Shandong, the outbound volume increased slightly this week, but it's still the off - season, and the transaction price in the warehouse is weak; in the western region, the outbound volume has been slow, with less total inventory and some water - rotted apples in cold storage. Early - maturing apples are on the market at a high price [4]. - Strategy recommendation: For single - side trading, lightly short at high positions; for inter - month trading, go long on 2510 and short on 2601; no recommendation for volatility and options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产区现货价格（洛川、栖霞） - Shandong: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 80 first - and second - grade striped red) in Qixia market is 4.05 yuan/jin [7]. - Western region: The average transaction price of apples (paper - bagged 70 and above) in Luochuan market is 4.6 yuan/jin (data stopped updating) [7]. 3.2产区库存及出库情况 - As of July 17, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 5.56%, down 0.68 percentage points this cycle and 3.32 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 91.26%. As of July 16, 2025, the inventory in main apple - producing areas is 80.60 tons, a decrease of 10.89 tons from last week, and the sales speed has slightly improved [10]. 3.3批发市场苹果价格 - As of July 18, in Guangzhou wholesale market, the prices of Jingning 80 boxed, Luochuan 80 boxed, Qixia 80 boxed, and their corresponding basket - packed apples remained unchanged from last week [13]. 3.4平衡表（库存） No specific content provided. 3.5销区水果价格 - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits is 7.29 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week. The wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.89 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg; that of Kyoho grapes is 12.74 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg; bananas are 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg; pineapples are 6.48 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg; watermelons are 3.00 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg; citrus is 7.48 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg [24]. 3.6苹果基差及月间价差情况 - On July 18, the basis is 352, the 10 - 01 spread is 132, and the 11 - 01 spread is - 100 [28].