聚乙烯产业链周报：情绪性反弹再现，谨防回调风险-20250720

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyethylene market has shown an emotional rebound, but there is a need to beware of callback risks. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [1][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week, the polyethylene production increased slightly. Next week, many devices are expected to resume production after maintenance, and the production may continue to increase. The import volume remained stable, and the main reason for the stable import was the reduction of US goods in the early stage. The apparent demand was worse than expected this week, and there was a slight inventory accumulation instead of the expected de - stocking. If the demand improves next week, there may be a slight de - stocking [5]. 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - Production: This week's production was 60.91 million tons, a slight increase from last week's 60.59 million tons. Next week, it is expected to reach 62.16 million tons, and the week after next, 62.95 million tons [5]. - Import and Export: The import volume was 28.89 million tons this week, the same as last week, and is expected to remain the same in the next two weeks. The export volume was 2.50 million tons this week, unchanged from last week and expected to remain so [5]. 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - Raw Material Prices: Crude oil prices were in a shock, with this week's price at 69.52, down 0.84 from last week's 70.36. Coal prices showed a weakening trend, rising from 623 last week to 630 this week [6]. - Cost: The cost of oil - based PE decreased from 8224 last week to 8159 this week, while the cost of coal - based PE remained unchanged at 6395 [6]. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of the oil - chemical end is expected to strengthen first and then weaken next week. The profit of coal - based PE weakened, with this week's profit at 395, down 80 from last week's 475. The import profit of LL weakened, with this week's profit at - 489, down 39 from last week's - 449 [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Total Inventory: This week, the total inventory was 106.59 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from last week. It is expected to be 99.52 million tons next week and 97.58 million tons the week after next [5]. - Upstream Inventory: The upstream inventory increased from 49.31 million tons last week to 52.93 million tons this week. Among them, the inventory of "Two - Oil" enterprises increased from 40.00 million tons to 42.90 million tons, and the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises increased from 9.31 million tons to 10.03 million tons [5]. - Mid - stream Inventory: The mid - stream inventory increased from 51.75 million tons last week to 53.66 million tons this week [5]. 3.2.4 Upstream, Mid - stream and Downstream Views - Upstream: Upstream maintenance devices have started to resume production. Currently, upstream supplies are relatively sufficient, and upstream inventory has increased month - on - month, so there is no large - scale price increase for now. However, the spot - futures arbitrage transactions are relatively good [7]. - Mid - stream: The mid - stream shipment situation has deteriorated. The recent price fluctuations have led to a decline in spot transactions to the downstream [7]. - Downstream: The continuity of downstream replenishment is poor. This week, the transactions deteriorated, and the replenishment willingness continued to decline. However, after the price increase on Friday night, the downstream's willingness to purchase slightly increased [7]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis fluctuated and strengthened this week. The basis in North China increased from - 70 last week to - 30 this week, while the basis in South China weakened from 110 last week to 80 this week [6]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spread fluctuated and weakened. The 1 - 5 month spread decreased from 36 last week to 23 this week, and the 9 - 1 month spread decreased from 13 last week to - 27 this week [6]. - Variety Spread: The HD - LL spread in North China increased from 260 last week to 270 this week, and the LD - LL spread in North China increased from 1880 last week to 2150 this week. The LL - PP spread is advised to be temporarily exited for observation [6][7].